Bitcoin (BTC) appears poised for one final upward surge before this bull market cycle concludes, according to fresh on-chain analysis from CryptoQuant. Despite BTC’s recent 23% correction from its $108,786 all-time high, key metrics suggest the leading cryptocurrency still has room to run.
The ongoing market uncertainty has been largely driven by President Trump’s new tariff policies, which have pushed US recession risk above 53%. However, historical patterns indicate this pullback may be temporary.
Critical Volume Ratio Points to Final Bull Run Phase
CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan has identified a crucial indicator – the ratio of BTC volume traded over 6-12 months – that historically marks different phases of market cycles. This metric provides valuable insight into new capital flows and has shown strong correlation with previous bull runs.
The analysis reveals a clear pattern:
- First ratio decline: Signals early bull phase ending
- Recovery period: Attracts new retail investors
- Second decline: Marks the ultimate cycle peak
Market Sentiment Remains Bullish Despite Correction
Multiple indicators suggest investors view the current pullback as a temporary setback rather than the end of the bull cycle:
- Short-term holders maintaining positions despite being at a loss
- Reduced exchange inflows indicating lower selling pressure
- Current price holding steady at $82,086 support level
Frequently Asked Questions
When will Bitcoin reach its cycle peak?
Based on current volume ratio analysis, the final peak could occur within the next 3-6 months, though exact timing remains uncertain.
What price levels should investors watch?
Key resistance levels lie at $90,000 and $100,000, while major support exists at $80,000 and $75,000.
How does this cycle compare to previous ones?
The current cycle shows similar volume ratio patterns to 2017 and 2021, suggesting we’re in the final phase before peak.