Veteran crypto analyst Bob Loukas has issued a stark warning about Bitcoin’s price trajectory, reducing his portfolio exposure and highlighting a potential drop to $52,000. The analysis comes amid increasing technical deterioration and mounting macroeconomic pressures in the crypto market.
Key Points from Loukas’ Analysis
- Sold one-third of portfolio at $79,500
- 33% probability Bitcoin has already peaked this cycle
- Technical indicators showing concerning breakdowns
- Potential 50% retracement to $52,000 level
In an analysis published April 8th, Loukas explained his decision to reduce Bitcoin exposure, citing both technical deterioration and macroeconomic headwinds. While maintaining that the bull cycle remains intact, he emphasized that recent market behavior demands increased caution.
Technical Signals Flash Warning Signs
The analysis points to several concerning technical developments, including trendline violations and critical support breaks on weekly and monthly charts. As recent market turbulence has shown, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks, particularly amid escalating trade tensions.
Macroeconomic Headwinds Mount
Loukas highlighted significant macro concerns, particularly around trade and tariffs, that could accelerate any downside movement. The analyst noted that recent trade war developments pose a serious threat to global markets, potentially triggering a broader recession.
Strategic Portfolio Adjustment
The portfolio adjustment brings Loukas’ Bitcoin allocation to 27 BTC, representing a strategic hedge rather than bearish capitulation. He maintains that this move aligns with his long-term cyclical analysis methodology.
FAQ Section
What is the predicted bottom for Bitcoin?
Loukas suggests $52,000 as a potential bottom, representing a 50% retracement from January highs.
Is this the end of the bull market?
While risks have increased, Loukas still sees a 67% chance the bull market continues, potentially reaching new highs later in 2025.
What are the key risk factors?
Primary risks include technical breakdowns, trade war escalation, and potential decoupling failure from traditional markets.
At press time, Bitcoin trades at $77,743, as markets digest these emerging risks and potential scenarios.