Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has sent shockwaves through the crypto market with his latest prediction that Bitcoin (BTC) could find its bottom around $70,000 – marking a 36% correction from its recent all-time high of $108,786. This bold forecast comes as Bitcoin’s recent futures market wipeout has left many traders questioning the next market move.
Market Context and Recession Fears
Bitcoin recently touched a four-month low of $76,606 amid growing recession concerns. The broader financial markets have shown similar weakness, with the S&P 500 declining nearly 8% over the past month. According to Polymarket data, the probability of a US recession in 2025 has jumped from 23% to 39% in just two weeks.
SPONSORED
Trade Bitcoin with up to 100x leverage and maximize your profit potential
Hayes’ Strategic Outlook
Hayes suggests that the potential $70,000 bottom would coincide with broader market turmoil, including:
- Sharp declines in traditional markets (S&P 500 and Nasdaq)
- Potential failures in major financial institutions
- Central bank intervention through quantitative easing (QE)
Historical Context and QE Impact
The last major QE cycle (March 2020 – November 2021) saw Bitcoin surge from $6,000 to $69,000, representing a staggering 1,050% gain. This historical precedent adds weight to Hayes’ analysis of potential market reactions to future QE measures.
Technical Indicators Signal Hope
Despite the bearish short-term outlook, several technical indicators suggest a potential trend reversal:
- RSI at lowest levels since August 2024
- Double-bottom formation identified by analyst Michael van de Poppe
- Significant US Dollar Index (DXY) weekly decline
Market Implications and Trading Strategy
Hayes advises investors to consider two approaches:
- Aggressive traders: Attempt to catch the bottom around $70,000
- Conservative investors: Wait for clear central bank easing signals before deploying capital
At press time, Bitcoin trades at $80,008, showing resilience with a modest 0.1% gain over 24 hours. The market appears to be at a crucial junction, with both bearish and bullish scenarios in play.