Bitcoin’s recent pullback from $111,000 to $105,700 has sparked intense debate about the current market cycle. While some traders see early warning signs, prominent analyst Leshka.eth presents compelling evidence that the bull market still has significant room to run, with August 2025 marked as the crucial exit window.
Understanding the Bitcoin Bull Cycle Timeline
According to Leshka.eth’s comprehensive analysis shared on X (formerly Twitter), the current market is only in its mid-optimism phase. Drawing parallels with the 2017 and 2021 cycles, the analyst forecasts several key phases ahead:
- July 2025: Bitcoin price peak
- August 2025: Optimal exit window during complacency phase
- September-November 2025: Major market correction
Critical On-Chain Metrics to Watch
Three essential indicators will signal the market top:
- MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value)
- NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)
- SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio)
Recent data shows profit-taking has increased significantly, but remains below historical peak levels, supporting the analyst’s timeline.
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Market Cycle Indicators and Warning Signs
The analyst identifies several key events that will signal the market top:
- Unsustainable meme coin rallies (June-July 2025)
- NFT market resurgence
- Layer-2 protocols entering price discovery
- Massive retail investor influx
Frequently Asked Questions
When should investors exit the Bitcoin market?
According to the analysis, August 2025 presents the optimal exit window, during the complacency phase before the major correction.
What percentage drop is expected in the next crypto winter?
The analyst predicts 95% of tokens will experience 90-99% drawdowns from their peak values.
How reliable are these market cycle predictions?
The analyst successfully timed the 2021 market top and bases current predictions on multiple technical and on-chain indicators with historical accuracy.
At time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $105,700, down 2.1% over 24 hours, suggesting we’re still in the middle stages of this bull cycle with significant upside potential remaining before the projected peak in 2025.