Bitcoin Market Faces Major Shift as Bull Cycle Ends
CryptoQuant’s founder Ki Young Ju has delivered a stark warning to crypto investors: the Bitcoin bull market is officially over. In a dramatic shift from recent optimistic outlooks, Ju predicts 6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action ahead, citing concerning liquidity metrics and market indicators.
Key Market Warning Signs
Several critical factors are contributing to this bearish outlook:
- Stalled Liquidity: The on-chain realized cap has flatlined, indicating a lack of fresh capital entering the market
- ETF Outflows: BlackRock’s IBIT has experienced three consecutive weeks of withdrawals
- Price Resistance: Despite record trading volumes near $100,000, Bitcoin’s price has shown minimal upward momentum
- Technical Indicators: The MVRV Ratio Z-score has dropped below its 365-day moving average, historically a reliable bear market signal
Critical Support Levels and Market Implications
CryptoQuant analysts have identified the $75,000-$78,000 range as a crucial support level. A breach below this zone could trigger a cascade of selling pressure, potentially driving Bitcoin back to the $63,000 mark. This bearish scenario is supported by:
- Declining whale accumulation patterns
- Net selling pressure from U.S.-based spot ETFs
- Weakening institutional demand
Market Sentiment and Future Outlook
Current market predictions from Polymarket show traders are relatively divided, with:
- 51% expecting BTC to trade between $81,000-$87,000 this week
- 31% projecting a drop to $75,000 by month’s end
- Bitcoin has already declined 15% in the past month
This bearish outlook aligns with recent reports of significant outflows from crypto ETFs, suggesting a broader market correction could be underway.
Expert Analysis and Recommendations
Market experts, including LMAX Group’s Joel Kruger and Coinbase Institutional’s David Duong, warn that external factors could further pressure crypto markets:
- U.S. equity market weakness
- Growing economic uncertainty
- Rising global tensions
- Potential stagflation risks
Investors are advised to maintain cautious positioning and consider risk management strategies during this transitional period.