Bitcoin’s recent plunge to $74,000 has sparked intense debate about potential bottom levels, with a respected CMT-certified analyst now forecasting an even deeper correction to the $38,000-$42,000 range. This bearish prediction comes as Bitcoin ETF outflows reach concerning levels, suggesting growing bearish sentiment in the market.
Elliott Wave Analysis Points to Extended Correction
Technical analyst Tony Severino’s detailed Elliott Wave analysis reveals that Bitcoin has completed a classic 5-wave impulsive structure near $85,000. The cryptocurrency appears to be entering an ABC corrective pattern that could drive prices significantly lower over the next two years.
According to Severino’s analysis:
- Wave A target: $62,000-$65,000 by June 2025
- Brief Wave B bounce expected
- Final Wave C bottom: $38,000-$42,000 by April 2026
Death Cross Confirms Bearish Outlook
Adding weight to the bearish scenario, Bitcoin has just formed its first Death Cross since September 2024, with the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day MA. This technical pattern historically signals extended downtrends, testing the resolve of long-term holders.
Market Cycle Timing
The projected timeline aligns with Bitcoin’s historical four-year halving cycle, suggesting:
- Bull market peak: 2025
- Extended bear phase: Mid-2026
- Next accumulation phase: Late 2026
FAQ: Key Questions About Bitcoin’s Bottom
Q: Why is $38,000 considered a potential bottom?
A: This level aligns with the iv sub-wave of Wave 3 and represents a typical retracement zone in Elliott Wave theory.
Q: How reliable are Death Cross signals?
A: While not infallible, Death Crosses have historically preceded significant downtrends in Bitcoin’s price 70% of the time.
Q: What could invalidate this bearish scenario?
A: A sustained break above $85,000 with strong volume would suggest this Elliott Wave count is incorrect.