Bitcoin’s recent price action shows potential signs of a local top formation, as on-chain data reveals significant distribution from short-term holders (STH) near the $109,000 level. This analysis comes as Bitcoin ETF inflows reached a staggering $2.75 billion, highlighting the contrast between institutional and retail investor behavior.
Short-Term Holder Distribution Patterns Emerge
According to investment data firm Alphractal, Bitcoin’s short-term holders have begun a notable distribution phase, historically a precursor to significant market corrections. The Bitcoin Supply Held by Short-Term Holders indicator, which tracks BTC owned for less than 155 days, shows a concerning downward trend.
Key Support Levels and Price Implications
The current STH realized price stands at $94,500, representing a crucial support level. Meanwhile, long-term holders maintain a significantly lower cost basis at $33,000, indicating a stark behavioral divergence between investor cohorts. This pattern aligns with recent technical analysis suggesting key support levels could trigger a pullback.
Market Outlook and Future Projections
Despite the distribution signals, historical data suggests Bitcoin could still achieve new highs before a significant correction. The macro analysis points to October 2025 as a potential timeline for a major market shift, coinciding with post-halving cycle patterns.
FAQ Section
What is the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder indicator?
This on-chain metric tracks the supply of Bitcoin held by addresses that have acquired their coins within the last 155 days, helping identify potential market tops and bottoms.
Why is the $94,500 level significant?
This price represents the average acquisition cost for short-term holders, acting as a psychological support level below which these investors would face unrealized losses.
What could trigger a market correction?
A combination of factors including sustained STH distribution, macro economic events, and post-halving cycle dynamics could contribute to a potential correction after October 2025.