Bitcoin has experienced significant price volatility in recent days, dropping to $91K before recovering above $100K. However, BTC is now trading around $98K, struggling to maintain its momentum amid ongoing trade war fears that have shaken global markets. The uncertainty surrounding these geopolitical developments has played a significant role in Bitcoin’s recent performance, and this trend may continue in the coming weeks.
Despite Bitcoin’s recovery from the $91K low, on-chain data from Santiment reveals that retail investors are not eager to buy BTC yet. The number of addresses holding between 0 to 1 BTC continues to decline, suggesting that smaller investors are either hesitant to re-enter the market or taking profits amid the recent price swings. This lack of retail participation raises questions about the sustainability of Bitcoin’s rally without broader support from smaller investors.
Historically, retail participation has been a key driver of Bitcoin’s bull cycles, with increased adoption and buying pressure fueling higher prices. The current decline in small-holder addresses contrasts with previous bull runs, where smaller investors often rushed in at higher prices, typically marking the later stages of a rally.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently consolidating below its all-time high (ATH) of $109K. The price has been ranging between the ATH and the $90K level, creating uncertainty among investors about whether the bull cycle has already peaked. For BTC to resume its upward trajectory, reclaiming and holding the $100K level as support is crucial. A successful break above this level could trigger a strong rally into price discovery, setting the stage for new highs. Conversely, failure to break and hold $100K could signal weakness and open the door for a deeper correction, potentially retesting lower demand zones between $95K and $90K.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s near-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic, but the lack of retail participation is a concern. The next major move will largely depend on BTC’s ability to solidify support above $100K. If retail investors start to re-enter the market and bulls successfully reclaim this key level, a breakout to new highs becomes more likely. However, if retail demand remains subdued and BTC fails to hold above $100K, further consolidation or a correction may be on the horizon.
Tags: Bitcoin, BTC price, retail investors, on-chain data, technical analysis