Bitcoin surged over 8% to reach $83,588 on Wednesday following President Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on new reciprocal tariffs for most countries, excluding China. This dramatic price movement came as recession odds dropped significantly after Trump’s tariff pause announcement, though uncertainty remains around US-China trade tensions.
The cryptocurrency market reacted positively to Trump’s decision to temporarily halt tariffs for 75 countries while simultaneously raising China’s rate to 125%. This selective approach has created a unique dynamic in global markets, with Bitcoin emerging as a key beneficiary of the shifting trade landscape.
Market Expert Analysis: Potential for Further Upside
Joe McCann, founder of crypto fund Asymmetric, suggests that markets haven’t yet priced in a potential China deal, indicating room for significant upside. His analysis shows that while markets have adjusted to the selective tariff approach, a breakthrough in US-China negotiations could trigger an explosive rally.
This perspective gains additional weight when considering that Bitcoin recently tested critical support at $77K before this dramatic reversal.
Cautionary Signals Remain
Despite the rally, some experts urge caution. Jeff Park of Bitwise points to persistent headwinds including:
- Weakened yuan dynamics
- 10-year Treasury yields above 4%
- Credit spreads exceeding 400 basis points
- Potential Federal Reserve policy shifts
Goldman Sachs Revises Economic Outlook
In a significant development, Goldman Sachs has withdrawn its recession baseline forecast, now projecting:
- 0.5% Q4/Q4 GDP growth in 2025
- 45% recession probability
- Three 25-basis-point Fed rate cuts (June-September)
CPI Data Could Impact Bitcoin’s Next Move
Today’s upcoming CPI release could prove crucial for Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Market expectations include:
- Projected YoY drop to 2.5-2.6%
- Core CPI expected at 3.0-3.1%
- Potential impact on Fed policy decisions
FAQ Section
How will Trump’s tariff pause affect Bitcoin long-term?
The pause could reduce market uncertainty and potentially support Bitcoin’s role as a global trade hedge, though China tensions remain a key factor.
What are the key price levels to watch?
Current support sits at $81,000 with resistance at $84,000. The recent high of $83,588 serves as an immediate technical reference.
Could CPI data reverse Bitcoin’s gains?
Higher-than-expected inflation could trigger market volatility, potentially affecting Bitcoin’s recent momentum.