Global Macro Investor’s Head of Macro Research, Julien Bittel, predicts Bitcoin could follow a 2017-style surge in 2025. His analysis points to favorable macro conditions and improving global liquidity.
The Macro Summer Catalyst
Bittel sees 2025 as a macro ‘summer’ period. Growth momentum rises while inflation stays manageable. Global manufacturing data shows improvement. More countries enter expansion territory. These conditions mirror 2017’s bull market setup.
The current environment features declining US bond yields and a weakening dollar. China’s bond yields have dropped significantly. This creates room for additional liquidity without risking overheating. The scenario closely resembles 2017’s conditions that drove crypto markets higher.
ISM Index: A Key Indicator
The ISM Index plays a crucial role in Bitcoin’s price movements. Historical data shows massive rallies when the index hovers above 50. The current reading just crossed this threshold. This differs from 2021’s rapid surge to the mid-60s.
Bitcoin’s previous bull runs saw significant gains under similar conditions. The 2017 cycle produced a 23x return. While Bittel avoids specific predictions, he emphasizes the positive setup.
Market Implications
Several factors support a potential extended uptrend:
- Weakening dollar environment
- Increasing global liquidity
- Favorable business cycle position
- China’s potential stimulus impact
Investors should prepare for volatility. 20-30% drawdowns remain likely even in bull markets. The current price of $97,710 could see significant upside if macro conditions hold.
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Tags: Bitcoin, Macro Analysis, Bull Market, Trading, Cryptocurrency
Source: NewsbtC