JPMorgan’s latest analysis suggests Bitcoin is poised to outperform gold during the second half of 2025, driven by increasing institutional adoption and growing support from U.S. state governments. This forecast comes as Bitcoin continues its institutional-driven rally, marking a significant shift in the traditional store-of-value narrative.
Key Findings from JPMorgan’s Analysis
According to Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and his team, the ‘debasement trade’ has evolved into a zero-sum game between Bitcoin and gold, with Bitcoin increasingly gaining the upper hand. Since April 22, gold has experienced an 8% decline while Bitcoin has surged 18%, demonstrating a clear shift in investor preference.
Corporate Bitcoin Adoption Accelerates
The analysis highlights several key drivers behind Bitcoin’s momentum:
- Strategy’s ambitious $84 billion Bitcoin purchase plan through 2027 (32% complete)
- Metaplanet’s record Q1 FY2025 performance with 6,796 BTC holdings
- 103.1x increase in Metaplanet’s BTC net asset value since adoption
U.S. State Adoption Trends
A particularly bullish signal comes from increasing state-level adoption:
- New Hampshire: Approved 5% Bitcoin reserves allocation
- Arizona: Launched Strategic Bitcoin Reserve initiative
- Multiple other states considering similar measures
Market Implications
The shift from gold to Bitcoin is evidenced by:
- Outflow from gold ETFs into Bitcoin investments
- Declining gold futures positions
- Increasing Bitcoin futures activity
FAQ Section
Why is Bitcoin outperforming gold in 2025?
Bitcoin’s outperformance is driven by increasing institutional adoption, state-level support, and shifting investor sentiment toward digital assets as a store of value.
What is the ‘debasement trade’?
The debasement trade refers to investors seeking assets like gold and Bitcoin as hedges against weakening fiat currencies.
How are U.S. states adopting Bitcoin?
States are beginning to include Bitcoin in their strategic reserves, with New Hampshire and Arizona leading the way through formal legislation and policy changes.
As this trend continues to develop, JPMorgan analysts believe the growing list of U.S. states considering Bitcoin for their strategic reserves could become a sustained positive catalyst for the cryptocurrency’s value proposition against traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
