Bitcoin (BTC) appears poised for a major breakout, with leading digital asset hedge fund Capriole Investments forecasting a minimum 50% surge to $162,000 by November. The prediction comes as BTC consolidates above $108,000 following Tuesday’s fresh all-time high.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, outlined a compelling confluence of macro, technical, and on-chain factors supporting what he calls “the most bullish technical setup we could ask for Bitcoin at all-time highs” in his latest market note titled “Saddle Up.”
The Hard Asset Era Begins
Central to Edwards’ thesis is the emergence of what he terms the “Hard Asset Era” – a paradigm shift where investors increasingly favor scarce stores of value over traditional equities. This trend is evidenced by the Gold-to-S&P 500 ratio breaking above its 200-week moving average, historically a precursor to gold outperforming stocks by 150% to 650%.
“If you think gold has already rallied a lot, think again,” Edwards noted, suggesting Bitcoin could see even steeper gains given its tendency to lag gold movements by several months.
The analysis gains additional credibility in light of recent developments around the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve initiative, which has provided unprecedented institutional legitimacy to Bitcoin as a strategic asset.
Technical Strength Confirms Bullish Outlook
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s recent price action has been particularly encouraging. The April dip to $75,000 and subsequent recovery above $90,000 represents a textbook “fake-out” pattern that often precedes significant upward moves. Edwards identifies $104,000 as a crucial support level, maintaining his bullish outlook as long as price holds above this threshold.
On-Chain Metrics Signal Strong Fundamentals
Capriole’s proprietary Bitcoin Macro Index, which incorporates over 100 on-chain, macro, and equity market variables, continues to signal “bullish growth.” Key metrics including positive apparent demand and expanding trading volumes support the firm’s projection of a minimum 50% price increase over the next six months.
Risk Factors to Consider
Despite the overwhelmingly positive outlook, Edwards acknowledges potential headwinds, particularly on the policy front. These include ongoing US-China trade negotiations and the growing trend of corporate Bitcoin treasury investments, which could amplify market volatility during future deleveraging events.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the predicted Bitcoin price target by November 2025?
A: Capriole Investments forecasts a minimum price of $162,000, representing a 50% increase from current levels.
Q: What key support level should traders watch?
A: The critical support level is $104,000, which must hold to maintain the bullish technical setup.
Q: What are the main catalysts for this predicted rally?
A: The key drivers include the Hard Asset Era transition, institutional adoption, and positive on-chain metrics.
At press time, Bitcoin trades at $108,005, maintaining its position above key support levels as market participants digest these ambitious projections.
