Bitcoin (BTC) is showing strong signs of breaking out of its post-halving consolidation phase, with prices hovering near all-time highs after reaching $112,000 this week. The leading cryptocurrency appears poised for its next major move as key technical and on-chain metrics align with historical cycle patterns.
According to data from Sentora (formerly IntoTheBlock), Bitcoin’s current market structure closely mirrors previous post-halving periods, albeit with some notable differences. The surge in ETF inflows to $2.75B has added a new dynamic to this cycle, potentially accelerating price discovery.
Post-Halving Pattern Shows Similarities to Previous Cycles
Historical data reveals that Bitcoin typically undergoes a prolonged consolidation phase in the year following each halving before entering its strongest rally phase. While this cycle saw an earlier-than-expected price spike, the subsequent consolidation at higher levels suggests healthy market dynamics.
Sentora’s analysis indicates that Bitcoin peaks traditionally emerge 1.5 to 2 years post-halving, putting the spotlight on late 2025 for potential cycle highs. Recent on-chain metrics support this thesis, with whale holdings remaining stable despite price volatility.
Technical Analysis Points to Further Upside
The weekly chart shows impressive strength with four consecutive green candles and a potential highest weekly close in history near $108,000. The previous resistance at $103,600 has flipped to support, establishing a solid foundation for the next leg up.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
- Critical Support: $103,600-$105,000
- Current Resistance: $112,000
- Next Target: $120,000
- 34-week EMA: $87,966
FAQ: Bitcoin’s Post-Halving Outlook
Q: When could Bitcoin reach its cycle peak?
A: Historical patterns suggest a potential peak between Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, approximately 1.5-2 years post-halving.
Q: What are the key resistance levels to watch?
A: The immediate resistance lies at $112,000, with $120,000 representing the next major psychological barrier.
Q: How does this cycle compare to previous ones?
A: While following similar patterns, this cycle has been uniquely influenced by institutional adoption and ETF inflows, potentially leading to more sustained growth.
As Bitcoin continues to consolidate above $100,000, the market appears to be gathering strength for its next major move. With institutional interest growing and technical indicators remaining bullish, the stage may be set for the next phase of this bull cycle.
