Defx Insights

Tag: Bitcoin Price Analysis

  • Bitcoin Price Target $130K by September as M2 Liquidity Surges

    Bitcoin Price Target $130K by September as M2 Liquidity Surges

    Abra CEO Bill Barhydt has ignited fresh speculation in the crypto market by predicting Bitcoin could reach $130,000 by September, based on compelling correlations between global M2 money supply and BTC price action. This forecast comes as Bitcoin tests critical support levels around $103,000, with macro liquidity trends suggesting significant upside potential.

    Global Liquidity and Bitcoin’s Price Trajectory

    Barhydt’s analysis, which builds on research from macro investors Raoul Pal and Julien Bittel, suggests Bitcoin could experience a short-term dip to $100,000 before launching toward new all-time highs. The correlation between global M2 money supply and Bitcoin’s price has become increasingly significant, with Pal estimating that liquidity accounts for up to 90% of Bitcoin’s price movements.

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    Key Market Indicators and Risk Factors

    Current market data shows global M2 reaching a record $111 trillion, creating substantial tailwinds for Bitcoin’s price appreciation. However, Barhydt warns traders to exercise caution with leverage, noting the possibility of a pullback to $95,000 before any sustained rally materializes.

    Institutional Perspective and Market Adoption

    Despite concerns about market overcrowding, Barhydt emphasizes that institutional adoption remains in early stages, with “billions of people and trillions of dollars” yet to enter the crypto market. This aligns with recent trends showing increased institutional Bitcoin acquisition.

    FAQ Section

    What is the relationship between M2 and Bitcoin price?

    M2 money supply growth typically leads to increased Bitcoin prices as investors seek inflation hedges and alternative stores of value.

    When could Bitcoin reach $130,000?

    According to Barhydt’s analysis, Bitcoin could achieve this price target by August/September 2025, following a potential short-term correction.

    What are the main risks to this prediction?

    Key risks include changes in central bank policies, leverage-induced volatility, and potential regulatory developments.

    At press time, Bitcoin trades at $104,625, maintaining strong support above the $100,000 psychological level as markets digest these macro-driven predictions.

  • Bitcoin Price Eyes $92K Support Level After Breaking Below $104K

    Bitcoin’s price trajectory has taken a bearish turn following its recent all-time high of $111,000, with analysts now eyeing crucial support at $92,000. The leading cryptocurrency is currently trading at $104,000, marking a 6% decline from its peak as the market enters what appears to be a textbook accumulation phase.

    This price movement aligns with recent analysis suggesting strong support in the $97K-$99K range, though current market dynamics indicate potential for further downside.

    Understanding the Current Market Structure

    According to TradingView analyst Youriverse, Bitcoin is exhibiting classic signs of the ‘Power of 3’ phenomenon – Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution. This market behavior has historically preceded significant price movements, with the current pattern suggesting a possible retreat to lower support levels.

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    Key Support Levels to Watch

    The breakdown below $106,000 represents a significant shift in market structure, with several critical support levels now in focus:

    • Primary Support: $100,000
    • Secondary Support: $96,000-$98,000
    • Critical Support: $92,000

    Market Implications and Trading Opportunities

    While the current pullback might appear bearish at first glance, historical data suggests such corrections often present strategic buying opportunities. The potential drop to $92,000 could serve as a liquidity grab before the next leg up in the ongoing bull cycle.

    FAQ Section

    Why is Bitcoin dropping after reaching ATH?

    The decline follows typical profit-taking behavior after significant price appreciation, combined with overleveraged positions being flushed out of the market.

    Could Bitcoin fall below $90,000?

    While possible, strong institutional buying interest and technical support around $92,000-$95,000 make a drop below $90,000 less likely in the current market structure.

    Is this a good time to buy Bitcoin?

    The $92,000-$95,000 range represents a potential value zone for strategic accumulation, though investors should always consider their risk tolerance and investment timeline.

  • Bitcoin Trading: Elliott Wave Theory Reveals Key Pattern Signals

    Elliott Wave Theory is emerging as a powerful tool for Bitcoin traders seeking to navigate the cryptocurrency’s notorious volatility through structured market psychology analysis. As Bitcoin tests critical price levels near $106K, understanding these wave patterns becomes increasingly crucial for traders.

    Understanding Elliott Wave Theory in Crypto Markets

    Elliott Wave Theory posits that market movements follow predictable patterns driven by mass psychology. In the context of Bitcoin trading, these patterns manifest as five waves in the direction of the main trend, followed by three corrective waves.

    The Five-Wave Pattern in Bitcoin Markets

    • Wave 1: Initial move up (often triggered by early adopters)
    • Wave 2: First retracement (typically retraces 50-61.8% of Wave 1)
    • Wave 3: Strongest and longest wave (institutional interest peaks)
    • Wave 4: Another correction (usually shallower than Wave 2)
    • Wave 5: Final move up (retail FOMO phase)

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    Practical Application for Bitcoin Traders

    When applying Elliott Wave Theory to Bitcoin trading, consider these key factors:

    Wave Type Typical Characteristics Trading Strategy
    Impulse Waves Strong momentum, clear direction Hold positions, add on dips
    Corrective Waves Choppy price action, less volume Reduce exposure, wait for confirmation

    Combining Elliott Wave with Other Indicators

    For optimal results, traders should combine Elliott Wave analysis with:

    • Fibonacci retracement levels
    • Volume analysis
    • RSI and MACD indicators
    • Support and resistance levels

    Common Pitfalls to Avoid

    While powerful, Elliott Wave Theory requires careful application:

    • Don’t force wave counts into patterns
    • Always confirm with other technical indicators
    • Consider multiple timeframes
    • Account for Bitcoin’s unique market characteristics

    FAQ Section

    How accurate is Elliott Wave Theory for Bitcoin trading?

    Elliott Wave Theory shows approximately 70% accuracy when combined with other technical indicators and proper risk management.

    What timeframes work best for Elliott Wave analysis?

    Daily and 4-hour charts typically provide the most reliable wave patterns for Bitcoin trading.

    Can Elliott Wave predict Bitcoin price targets?

    While not exact, wave relationships can help project potential price targets using Fibonacci extensions.

    Remember: Always implement proper risk management strategies regardless of the analysis method used.

  • Bitcoin Price Eyes $106K: Key Support at $103K Could Trigger Rally

    Bitcoin Price Eyes $106K: Key Support at $103K Could Trigger Rally

    Bitcoin’s price action is showing signs of potential upward momentum after testing critical support levels. The leading cryptocurrency recently experienced a decline to $103,200 but appears to be consolidating for a possible recovery above $106,000. Recent analysis suggests that breaking $106K is crucial to prevent a major correction, making current price movements particularly significant.

    Technical Analysis: Bitcoin’s Current Position

    BTC’s recent price movement shows several key technical developments:

    • Support tested at $103,200 level, forming a potential bottom
    • Trading above the 100-hour Simple Moving Average and $105,000
    • Bearish trend line resistance at $105,550
    • 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level breached at $104,200

    Critical Price Levels to Watch

    For traders and investors monitoring Bitcoin’s next move, these key levels are crucial:

    Type Level Significance
    Immediate Resistance $105,550 Trend line resistance
    Key Resistance $106,800 50% Fibonacci level
    Major Support $103,200 Recent low
    Critical Support $101,200 Bearish trigger level

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    Bullish Scenario Analysis

    A breakthrough above $106,800 could trigger a significant rally, potentially targeting:

    • Initial target: $108,000
    • Secondary target: $110,000
    • Technical indicators support potential upside (MACD gaining in bullish zone)

    Bearish Risk Factors

    Failure to break above $106,000 could lead to:

    • Immediate decline to $105,000
    • Further support test at $104,200
    • Possible drop to $102,500

    Technical Indicators Overview

    • MACD: Showing bullish momentum
    • RSI: Above 50, indicating positive sentiment
    • Moving Averages: Price above 100-hour SMA

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What is the key resistance level for Bitcoin right now?

    The primary resistance level is at $106,000, with a secondary resistance at $106,800.

    Could Bitcoin drop below $100,000?

    While possible, strong support at $101,200 makes this scenario less likely in the immediate term.

    What technical indicators support a bullish outlook?

    The MACD’s bullish zone position and RSI above 50 suggest positive momentum.

  • Bitcoin Price Target $340K: Key $91K Support Level Must Hold

    Bitcoin Price Target $340K: Key $91K Support Level Must Hold

    Bitcoin’s path to $340,000 hinges on a critical support level, according to prominent crypto analyst PlanD. Despite recent price retracement, technical analysis suggests BTC remains in a strong uptrend – but only if prices maintain above a key threshold. Recent analysis warning of a potential bearish reversal at $93K adds context to this developing situation.

    Cup and Handle Pattern Points to Massive Bitcoin Rally

    A massive 3-year cup and handle pattern has formed on Bitcoin’s chart, traditionally a highly bullish continuation signal. The pattern consists of:

    • Cup formation: BTC’s decline from $69K (Nov 2021) to March 2024 recovery
    • Handle: Descending channel from March-October 2024
    • Breakout: Decisive move above $76K neckline in November 2024

    Critical Support Zone: $91,000 – $100,000

    For the bullish thesis to remain valid, Bitcoin must defend the crucial support zone between $91,000 and $100,000. This aligns with recent analysis showing cautious optimism based on Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio.

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    Current Market Status

    Bitcoin currently trades at $104,739, showing resilience with a 0.64% daily gain. Key levels to watch:

    • Current price: $104,739
    • 24h volume: $40.03B (↑31.28%)
    • Immediate resistance: $106,000
    • Secondary resistance: $109,000
    • All-time high: $111,970

    FAQ

    What could invalidate the $340K target?

    A sustained break below the $91,000 support level would significantly damage the bullish outlook.

    When could Bitcoin reach $340,000?

    According to PlanD’s analysis, this target could be achieved before 2025, assuming the support structure holds.

    What technical indicators support this prediction?

    The primary indicator is the cup and handle pattern, supported by current price action above key support levels.

  • Bitcoin Price Must Break $106K to Prevent Major Correction, Warns Analyst

    Bitcoin Price Must Break $106K to Prevent Major Correction, Warns Analyst

    Bitcoin’s recent price action has triggered warnings from analysts after falling 4.36% from its new all-time high of $111,970. The sharp decline mirrors broader market uncertainty, with experts now identifying $106,000 as a critical resistance level that must be reclaimed to prevent further downside.

    Bitcoin’s Critical Price Level: Understanding the $106K Resistance

    According to prominent crypto analyst Daan Crypto, Bitcoin needs to decisively close above $106,000 to maintain its bullish momentum. This price point has emerged as a crucial technical and psychological barrier following BTC’s recent correction below $104,000.

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    Market Pattern Analysis: Breaking Down the Bull Run

    Since April’s bull market revival, Bitcoin has followed a distinct pattern characterized by:

    • $10,000 price surges followed by 7-10 day consolidation periods
    • Range-bound trading between $106,000-$112,000
    • Recent breakdown below key support levels

    External Factors Impacting Bitcoin’s Price

    Several key factors are contributing to the current market pressure:

    Technical Analysis: Support and Resistance Levels

    Current key price levels to watch:

    • Major resistance: $106,000
    • Current support: $103,500
    • Critical support zone: $100,000-$102,000

    Expert Predictions and Market Outlook

    Market analysts are divided on Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory:

    • Bearish case: Potential drop to $100,000-$102,000 range
    • Bullish case: Recovery above $106,000 could trigger new rally
    • Over 1.27 million traders currently experiencing losses

    FAQ Section

    What is causing Bitcoin’s current price decline?

    The decline is attributed to multiple factors including negative ETF flows, macro-economic pressures, and technical selling after reaching the ATH of $111,970.

    What price level must Bitcoin maintain for bullish continuation?

    According to analysts, Bitcoin needs to reclaim and hold above $106,000 to maintain its bullish structure and prevent further decline.

    How low could Bitcoin price go in this correction?

    Some analysts suggest potential support levels between $100,000-$102,000, though strong buying pressure is expected at these levels.

    Time to Read: 5 minutes

  • Bitcoin Price Tests $103K: Critical Support Level Could Trigger Rally

    Bitcoin Price Tests $103K: Critical Support Level Could Trigger Rally

    Bitcoin continues to demonstrate resilience above the psychological $100,000 mark, currently trading at $103,700 despite recent market turbulence. Recent on-chain analysis suggests the broader rally may not be over, with key indicators pointing to potential upside ahead.

    Long-Term Bitcoin Indicators Signal Strength

    According to renowned crypto analyst Willy Woo, the Bitcoin Risk Signal – one of the most reliable long-term indicators – is showing encouraging signs. The metric’s downward trend suggests growing buy-side liquidity, potentially setting up Bitcoin for another leg higher.

    Key long-term bullish factors include:

    • Declining risk readings indicating a favorable accumulation environment
    • Strong buy-side liquidity dominance
    • Price holding firmly above six figures
    • Local risk model in mid-range with room for growth

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    Short-Term Caution Signs Emerge

    While the long-term outlook remains positive, several short-term metrics warrant attention:

    • SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) showing signs of weakness
    • Flat capital inflows over the past 72 hours
    • Rally momentum from $75,000 to $112,000 losing steam
    • Critical support test at $100,000 level

    Key Price Levels to Watch

    Traders should monitor these crucial price points:

    • Immediate resistance: $114,000
    • Major liquidity zone: $118,000-$120,000
    • Critical support: $100,000
    • Current trading range: $103,000-$105,000

    Expert Analysis and Market Outlook

    The market stands at a critical juncture, with two possible scenarios emerging:

    Bullish Case:

    • Strong buying pressure could trigger a break above $114,000
    • Short position liquidations could accelerate upward momentum
    • Target zone between $118,000-$120,000

    Bearish Case:

    • Weak spot buying could lead to consolidation
    • Risk of bearish divergence formation
    • Potential retest of lower support levels

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What is causing Bitcoin’s current price action?

    The current price action is influenced by a combination of long-term accumulation patterns and short-term profit-taking, with institutional flows playing a significant role.

    Will Bitcoin break above $120,000?

    While long-term indicators suggest potential for higher prices, immediate momentum will depend on spot buying pressure and institutional participation in the coming weeks.

    What are the key support levels to watch?

    The primary support zone lies at $100,000, with secondary support at $103,000. These levels are crucial for maintaining bullish momentum.

    At time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $103,700, showing a 1.5% decline over 24 hours and a 3.9% drop over the past week.

  • Bitcoin Price Crash to $50K Predicted: Key Support at $102K

    Bitcoin’s price trajectory faces potential turbulence as prominent crypto analyst Altcoin Sherpa suggests a possible crash to $50,000, though later clarifying it as speculation. This analysis comes as BTC tests critical support levels around $103,000, with multiple technical indicators showing signs of weakness.

    Market Analysis and Technical Outlook

    The current Bitcoin price action shows significant bearish pressure, with BTC trading at $103,700, representing a 2% decline in the past 24 hours. This downturn aligns with recent market liquidations exceeding $644 million as prices retreated from the $106,000 level.

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    Key Support Levels and Price Targets

    Technical analysis from multiple experts points to several critical support levels:

    • Primary support: $102,700 (Daily Kijun level)
    • Secondary support: $102,000-$104,000 range
    • Current resistance: $105,900

    Geopolitical Factors Influencing Bitcoin’s Price

    The recent price action has been significantly influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly:

    • US-China trade agreement violations
    • Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s warnings about China
    • Potential escalation of trade war concerns

    Expert Analysis and Market Sentiment

    Multiple analysts have weighed in on the current market conditions:

    • Altcoin Sherpa: Expects a bounce between $102,000-$104,000
    • Titan of Crypto: Projects potential support at $102,700

    FAQ Section

    What is causing the current Bitcoin price decline?

    The decline is attributed to geopolitical tensions between the US and China, combined with technical selling pressure at resistance levels.

    Where are the key support levels for Bitcoin?

    Key support levels exist at $102,700 (Daily Kijun), with additional support in the $102,000-$104,000 range.

    Is the $50,000 price prediction realistic?

    While initially suggested by Altcoin Sherpa, this prediction was later clarified as speculative and unlikely in the near term.

  • Bitcoin Price Warning: $270K Target or Bull Trap at $108K?

    Leading crypto analyst Dr. Cat has issued a critical warning about Bitcoin’s price trajectory, suggesting BTC stands at a decisive technical crossroads that could determine whether we see a surge to $270,000 or face a potential bull trap. As Bitcoin tests the critical $108K level, this analysis carries particular weight for traders positioning their strategies.

    Key Technical Levels and Warning Signs

    Dr. Cat dismisses widespread predictions of a casual correction to $90,000 as unrealistic, citing multi-timeframe Ichimoku data that shows four critical support levels would need to break – an unlikely scenario given current market strength. Instead, the analyst identifies a narrow trading range between $102,600 and $106,300 where “imbalances” exist across multiple timeframes.

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    Critical June 9 Technical Event

    A pivotal bullish TK cross is expected on June 9, which could determine Bitcoin’s next major move. Dr. Cat warns this signal must be accompanied by a new all-time high to avoid being invalidated. This technical event coincides with increasing whale activity, adding another layer of significance to the upcoming price action.

    The Case for $270,000 Bitcoin

    Based on Ichimoku Price Theory’s “4E model,” Dr. Cat presents an ambitious $270,000 price target. While acknowledging this as a “wild guess,” the analyst argues that market skepticism and conservative price targets typically precede significant rallies that exceed mainstream expectations.

    Currency Pair Divergence

    A notable divergence between BTCUSD and BTCEUR pairs suggests underlying market dynamics may be more complex than they appear. The BTCEUR chart shows concerning signals, with potential downside to 70K EUR, while BTCUSD benefits from dollar weakness.

    FAQ

    Q: What are the key support levels to watch?
    A: Current support levels are $103,600 (this week), rising to $108,300 by mid-June, with potential dip to $99,000 by late June.

    Q: When is the critical technical event?
    A: The bullish TK cross is expected on June 9, 2025.

    Q: What could invalidate the bullish scenario?
    A: Failure to break all-time highs in June, combined with Chikou Span weakness or daily trend breakdowns.

    At press time, Bitcoin trades at $108,783, with the next 2-3 weeks likely determining the trajectory toward either the bullish $270,000 target or a potential Q4 correction.

  • Bitcoin Price Could Hit $400K: M2 Money Supply Data Reveals Pattern

    Bitcoin continues to show remarkable stability between $108,000 and $110,000, maintaining this range despite recent market volatility. As technical indicators signal a potential major move at the $108K level, a compelling correlation with global money supply data suggests an ambitious price target ahead.

    The M2 Money Supply Connection

    Cryptocurrency analyst Kyle Chassé has identified a fascinating pattern: Bitcoin price movements tend to follow global M2 money supply trends with a 90-day lag. By analyzing Bitstamp exchange data against shifted M2 figures, a clear correlation emerges – when global liquidity expands, Bitcoin typically sees significant appreciation approximately three months later.

    Recent Price Action and M2 Growth

    The correlation becomes evident when examining recent market activity. Bitcoin’s surge above $109,000 in January 2025, subsequent drop below $75,000 in April, and current recovery align with previous M2 supply movements. Despite reaching new all-time highs with relatively low retail interest, the pattern suggests this may be just the beginning.

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    The Path to $400,000

    Global M2 has grown from $98 trillion in early 2023 to over $111 trillion currently. Based on this trajectory and the established correlation, Chassé projects a potential Bitcoin price of $400,000 – representing a 270% increase from current levels.

    Additional Market Factors

    While the M2 correlation is compelling, other factors could influence Bitcoin’s trajectory:

    • Central bank policies and interest rates
    • On-chain metrics and network activity
    • Institutional adoption rates
    • Regulatory developments

    FAQ Section

    What is M2 money supply?

    M2 is a measure of the money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money.

    Why does Bitcoin lag behind M2 by 90 days?

    The lag represents the time it takes for increased liquidity to flow through the financial system and eventually reach cryptocurrency markets.

    Is $400,000 Bitcoin realistic?

    While ambitious, the target is based on historical correlations with M2 supply growth. However, multiple factors could impact this projection.

    Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView