Defx Insights

Tag: Bitcoin Price Analysis

  • Bitcoin Price Alert: $65K Could Trigger Mass Capitulation, Analyst Warns

    Bitcoin Price Alert: $65K Could Trigger Mass Capitulation, Analyst Warns

    On-chain analyst James Check has identified $65,000 as Bitcoin’s potential ‘true capitulation zone’ – a critical price level that could trigger significant market movements. This analysis comes amid ongoing bearish pressure testing Bitcoin’s support levels.

    Understanding the $65K Capitulation Theory

    According to Check’s analysis on the TFTC podcast, the $65,000 level represents the ‘true market mean’ – the average cost basis for active Bitcoin investors. This price point is particularly significant because:

    • It marks the average entry point for current market participants
    • Long-term holders (5+ years) could face underwater positions
    • Aligns with Michael Saylor’s average acquisition cost of $67,500

    Key Support Levels to Watch

    Check outlined several critical support zones that could determine Bitcoin’s next major move:

    Price Level Significance
    $65,000 True Market Mean / Potential Capitulation Point
    $49,000-$50,000 ETF Launch Level / $1T Market Cap Support
    $40,000 Extreme Case Scenario (Global Recession Required)

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    2024’s ‘Chopsolidation’ Impact

    A notable aspect of Check’s analysis includes the extended period of ‘chopsolidation’ witnessed in 2024, where Bitcoin traded between $50,000 and $70,000. This prolonged range-bound activity has established strong technical support levels that could influence future price action.

    FAQ Section

    What is a capitulation event in crypto markets?

    A capitulation event occurs when investors give up their positions en masse, often at a loss, leading to sharp price declines followed by potential market rebounds.

    Why is the $65,000 level significant?

    This price represents the average cost basis for active investors and could trigger widespread selling if breached, potentially leading to a market-wide capitulation event.

    What role does the $1 trillion market cap play?

    The $1 trillion market cap (approximately $50,000 per BTC) serves as a psychological support level and coincides with the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in 2024.

  • Bitcoin Net Taker Volume Flips Bullish: $90K Target in Sight

    Bitcoin Net Taker Volume Flips Bullish: $90K Target in Sight

    Bitcoin’s market structure is showing renewed strength as the leading cryptocurrency holds steady above $85,000, with key indicators suggesting a potential push toward the critical $90,000 level. Recent data from CryptoQuant reveals a significant shift in market dynamics, as net taker volume – a crucial measure of aggressive buying versus selling pressure – has turned decisively positive.

    This technical development comes amid broader macroeconomic changes, most notably the recent 90-day tariff pause announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, which excludes China but has provided relief to global markets. As Bitcoin tests key liquidity zones above $85,000, traders are closely monitoring whether this momentum can drive prices to new heights.

    Net Taker Volume Signals Growing Bull Momentum

    According to prominent analyst Axel Adler, the Bitcoin cumulative net taker volume has flipped positive for the first time in several weeks, indicating that aggressive buyers are returning to the market with conviction. This metric is particularly significant as it measures the balance between market buy and sell orders, offering insight into directional pressure.

    Key findings from the latest market data include:

    • Bulls have taken control of derivatives markets since Friday
    • Growing spot demand coincides with on-chain accumulation signals
    • Market structure shows early signs of trend reversal

    Technical Analysis: Critical Levels to Watch

    Bitcoin currently trades at $85,700, facing crucial resistance at the 200-day moving average near $87,500. A breakthrough above this level could trigger a significant rally toward $90,000. However, the asset must first overcome several technical hurdles:

    • Immediate resistance: $87,500 (200-day SMA)
    • Key support: $81,000
    • Secondary support: $75,000 (previous correction bottom)

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    Market Risks and Considerations

    Despite the positive signals, several risk factors remain in play:

    • Ongoing trade tensions with China
    • Interest rate uncertainty
    • Technical resistance at key moving averages
    • Potential profit-taking near psychological $90,000 level

    Conclusion: What’s Next for Bitcoin?

    While the net taker volume indicator suggests growing bullish momentum, Bitcoin still needs to overcome significant technical resistance to confirm a broader uptrend. Traders should watch for sustained trading above $87,500 as confirmation of bullish continuation, while maintaining awareness of key support levels at $81,000 and $75,000.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What is net taker volume?
    Net taker volume measures the difference between aggressive buying and selling pressure in the market, helping identify potential trend shifts.

    Why is the 200-day moving average important?
    The 200-day moving average is a key technical indicator that often acts as a major support or resistance level and helps determine long-term market trends.

    What could trigger a move to $90,000?
    A combination of sustained positive net taker volume, breakthrough above the 200-day moving average, and continued institutional buying could drive Bitcoin toward the $90,000 target.

  • Bitcoin Price Target $144K as Global M2 Money Supply Hits ATH

    Bitcoin Price Target $144K as Global M2 Money Supply Hits ATH

    Bitcoin’s trajectory towards new all-time highs above $100,000 appears increasingly likely as the Global M2 money supply metric flashes strongly bullish signals. Crypto analyst Colin’s latest analysis suggests BTC could reach as high as $144,000 in the coming months, backed by compelling macro indicators.

    This bullish outlook aligns with recent institutional developments, as highlighted in recent news of major Bitcoin acquisitions by institutional players, demonstrating growing confidence in BTC as a monetary asset.

    Global M2 Money Supply Analysis Points to Bitcoin Breakout

    According to Colin’s detailed analysis shared on X (formerly Twitter), the Global M2 money supply metric has maintained all-time high levels for three consecutive days. This sustained elevation represents a “fantastic sign” for Bitcoin and other risk assets, though the analyst cautions that actual liquidity flows into BTC may take several weeks to materialize.

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    Key Technical Levels and Timeline

    The analysis projects a potential “slow bleed” until mid-April, specifically around April 16-17, creating what could be the last major dip buying opportunity before a significant price surge. Technical indicators suggest the real breakout movement may not initiate until May 2025.

    Understanding Global M2’s Impact on Bitcoin

    Colin emphasizes the importance of viewing the Global M2 metric through a macro lens, noting that:

    • The correlation shows 20% deviation periods
    • Short-term price movements shouldn’t overshadow the broader trend
    • Patience is crucial for capitalizing on this macro indicator

    Additional Technical Confirmation

    Supporting this bullish outlook, analyst Titan of Crypto has identified a potential momentum flip in Bitcoin’s price action. Key technical indicators showing strength include:

    • LMACD displaying clear momentum shift
    • Weekly chart showing robust price action
    • RSI breaking key trendline resistance
    • Price targeting $90,000 in the near term

    Current Market Position

    As of the latest market data, Bitcoin trades at $85,400, showing a 1% increase over 24 hours. This price level positions BTC strategically for its projected move toward the $100,000 milestone.

    FAQ Section

    What is the Global M2 money supply?

    Global M2 money supply is a measure of the money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money. It’s considered a key indicator of potential asset price inflation.

    Why is the $144,000 target significant?

    This price target represents a key technical and psychological level based on Global M2 correlation patterns and historical price action analysis.

    When could Bitcoin reach these predicted levels?

    According to the analysis, the major price movement could begin in May 2025, following a potential dip in mid-April.

  • Bitcoin Price Eyes $90K: Analysts Map Key Liquidity Zones After $85K Break

    Bitcoin Price Eyes $90K: Analysts Map Key Liquidity Zones After $85K Break

    Bitcoin (BTC) has reclaimed the crucial $85,000 level, with leading analysts now identifying key liquidity zones that could propel the cryptocurrency toward $90,000. As market resilience continues despite recent tariff concerns, technical indicators suggest heightened volatility ahead.

    Critical Liquidity Zones and Price Targets

    Renowned crypto analyst CrypNuevo has highlighted significant liquidation clusters between $90,000-$91,500, representing crucial psychological barriers for traders. With Bitcoin posting a 7% weekly gain, these zones could act as powerful price magnets, especially following last week’s recovery from the $74,000 support level.

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    Technical Analysis and Market Structure

    The current market structure shows:

    • Liquidation delta: Balanced with $15B in long positions
    • Key EMA convergence: Daily and weekly 50-day at $86,000
    • Critical support levels: $82,024 (96,580 BTC accumulated)
    • Rising wedge formation suggesting potential volatility

    Support Levels and Price Compression

    Ali Martinez, another prominent analyst, has identified $82,024 as a critical support level where nearly 100,000 BTC have accumulated. This aligns with recent on-chain data showing strong holder conviction despite market turbulence.

    Market Outlook and Price Targets

    While Bitcoin trades at $85,000, it remains 21% below its January all-time high of $109,000. However, current market sentiment and technical indicators suggest this gap could close rapidly, particularly if the identified liquidity zones act as predicted.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What are the key resistance levels for Bitcoin?

    Primary resistance zones are concentrated between $90,000-$91,500, with significant liquidation clusters in this range.

    What support levels should traders watch?

    Key support levels include $82,024 (major accumulation zone) and $81,000 (mid-range support line).

    Could Bitcoin reach its all-time high soon?

    With current momentum and market structure, closing the 21% gap to the $109,000 all-time high appears possible in the near term.

  • Bitcoin Price Targets $82K After Bouncing From $74K Support Level

    Key Takeaways:

    • Bitcoin currently trading at $79,630 with $1.57T market cap
    • 24-hour trading range: $78,424 – $82,401
    • Strong volume of $52.10B indicates high market participation

    Bitcoin’s price action continues to captivate market participants as the leading cryptocurrency shows resilience after a recent bounce from the $74,000 support level. Recent market optimism following Trump’s tariff pause has set the stage for potential further upside.

    The cryptocurrency’s impressive trading volume of $52.10 billion over the past 24 hours demonstrates robust market participation, suggesting strong institutional interest remains despite recent volatility.

    Technical Analysis Points to $82K Resistance

    On the hourly timeframe, Bitcoin has established a clear bullish structure, with several technical indicators suggesting momentum could carry prices toward the critical $82,000 resistance level. The recent bounce from $74,000 has formed a higher low, maintaining the broader uptrend.

    Market Sentiment and Volume Analysis

    Trading activity has intensified significantly, with the $52.10B daily volume representing one of the highest figures in recent weeks. This surge in volume during the bounce suggests strong buyer conviction at current levels.

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    Key Support and Resistance Levels

    Current support levels:

    • $78,400
    • $74,000
    • $71,500

    Key resistance levels:

    • $82,400
    • $85,000
    • $88,500

    Frequently Asked Questions

    Q: What caused Bitcoin’s recent bounce?
    A: The bounce from $74K coincided with reduced market uncertainty following the pause in global tariff discussions.

    Q: Is the current volume sustainable?
    A: The $52.10B trading volume indicates strong market interest, though such levels typically fluctuate based on market conditions.

    Q: What are the key levels to watch?
    A: The immediate resistance at $82,400 and support at $78,400 are crucial for short-term price direction.

  • Bitcoin Price Crash Predicted: Analyst Targets $58K Bottom in May

    Bitcoin Price Crash Predicted: Analyst Targets $58K Bottom in May

    In a remarkable display of market foresight, crypto analyst Doctor Profit, who accurately predicted Bitcoin’s decline from $97,000, has released a detailed forecast suggesting further downside ahead. The analyst’s previous predictions have proven notably accurate, lending significant weight to this latest analysis.

    As Bitcoin recently rebounded to $83,000 following Trump’s tariff pause announcement, Doctor Profit maintains his bearish stance, suggesting this recovery may be temporary.

    Understanding the Current Market Structure

    Doctor Profit’s analysis centers on several key technical and fundamental factors:

    • Initial support zone: $70,000-$74,000 range
    • Primary target zone: $58,000-$68,000
    • Expected timeline: Continued decline through April
    • Recovery projection: May/June 2025
    • Ultimate upside target: $120,000-$140,000

    The M2 Money Supply Factor

    A crucial element of Doctor Profit’s analysis revolves around the M2 money supply metric, which he argues is frequently misinterpreted in the crypto space. While many traders view the recent M2 uptick as immediately bullish, the analyst emphasizes that Bitcoin’s response to monetary policy changes occurs gradually.

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    Technical Analysis and Price Targets

    The analyst has identified the weekly EMA50 as a critical “Golden Line” that could determine Bitcoin’s next major move. A daily close above this level could trigger a fresh rally, while a breakdown below could accelerate the predicted decline to the $58,000-$68,000 range.

    FAQ Section

    When will Bitcoin’s price bottom out?

    According to Doctor Profit’s analysis, the bottom is expected between May and June 2025, with potential prices ranging from $58,000 to $68,000.

    What could invalidate this bearish scenario?

    A strong daily close above the weekly EMA50 “Golden Line” could signal a trend reversal and invalidate the bearish outlook.

    What’s the upside target after the bottom?

    The analyst projects a recovery to $120,000-$140,000 following the predicted bottom formation.

    As the crypto market continues to react to macroeconomic factors and technical indicators, traders should maintain strict risk management practices and consider multiple scenarios in their trading strategies.

  • Bitcoin Price Warning: Analyst Sees 33% Chance of $52K Drop

    Veteran crypto analyst Bob Loukas has issued a stark warning about Bitcoin’s price trajectory, reducing his portfolio exposure and highlighting a potential drop to $52,000. The analysis comes amid increasing technical deterioration and mounting macroeconomic pressures in the crypto market.

    Key Points from Loukas’ Analysis

    • Sold one-third of portfolio at $79,500
    • 33% probability Bitcoin has already peaked this cycle
    • Technical indicators showing concerning breakdowns
    • Potential 50% retracement to $52,000 level

    In an analysis published April 8th, Loukas explained his decision to reduce Bitcoin exposure, citing both technical deterioration and macroeconomic headwinds. While maintaining that the bull cycle remains intact, he emphasized that recent market behavior demands increased caution.

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    Technical Signals Flash Warning Signs

    The analysis points to several concerning technical developments, including trendline violations and critical support breaks on weekly and monthly charts. As recent market turbulence has shown, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks, particularly amid escalating trade tensions.

    Macroeconomic Headwinds Mount

    Loukas highlighted significant macro concerns, particularly around trade and tariffs, that could accelerate any downside movement. The analyst noted that recent trade war developments pose a serious threat to global markets, potentially triggering a broader recession.

    Strategic Portfolio Adjustment

    The portfolio adjustment brings Loukas’ Bitcoin allocation to 27 BTC, representing a strategic hedge rather than bearish capitulation. He maintains that this move aligns with his long-term cyclical analysis methodology.

    FAQ Section

    What is the predicted bottom for Bitcoin?

    Loukas suggests $52,000 as a potential bottom, representing a 50% retracement from January highs.

    Is this the end of the bull market?

    While risks have increased, Loukas still sees a 67% chance the bull market continues, potentially reaching new highs later in 2025.

    What are the key risk factors?

    Primary risks include technical breakdowns, trade war escalation, and potential decoupling failure from traditional markets.

    At press time, Bitcoin trades at $77,743, as markets digest these emerging risks and potential scenarios.

  • Bitcoin Buy Signal Emerges as BTC Tests Critical $78K Support Level

    Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of a potential trend reversal as multiple technical indicators align at a crucial support level. Leading crypto analysts have identified key buy signals that could mark the end of Bitcoin’s recent downtrend, which has seen the cryptocurrency drop nearly 30% from its 2025 peak.

    In a significant development that coincides with yesterday’s tariff-induced market turmoil, prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez has identified a weekly TD Sequential buy signal for Bitcoin. This technical indicator has historically preceded major price reversals, suggesting that selling pressure may be approaching exhaustion.

    Technical Analysis Points to Potential Bitcoin Recovery

    The weekly TD Sequential buy signal is particularly noteworthy as it emerges while BTC trades near the critical $78,000 support level. This indicator typically manifests when a specific 9-count pattern completes, often marking the end of a prolonged downtrend.

    Adding weight to the bullish case, analyst Titan of Crypto highlights that Bitcoin is currently trading within a key reversal zone. The cryptocurrency remains above the crucial 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting the broader uptrend remains intact despite recent volatility.

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    Market Context and Historical Perspective

    While the recent 26.6% decline from Bitcoin’s all-time high of $109,500 has rattled some investors, historical data suggests this pullback is relatively mild compared to previous market cycles. For context, BTC experienced significantly deeper corrections of 83% in 2018 and 73% in 2022.

    Looking Ahead: Key Levels to Watch

    Despite the emerging buy signals, traders should remain cautious as several technical indicators suggest the market may need more time to establish a solid bottom. The recent formation of a death cross pattern could signal additional short-term volatility before a sustained recovery takes hold.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    Q: What is the TD Sequential buy signal?
    A: It’s a technical indicator that identifies potential trend reversals based on a specific 9-count pattern in price action.

    Q: How significant is the current Bitcoin correction?
    A: The current 26.6% decline is relatively modest compared to historical corrections, which have exceeded 70-80%.

    Q: What key support levels should traders watch?
    A: The $78,000 level and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level are crucial support zones to monitor.

  • Bitcoin Peak Delayed Until 2026: Business Cycle Analysis Challenges 4-Year Theory

    A comprehensive business cycle analysis suggests Bitcoin’s next major price peak could be delayed until late 2026, potentially disrupting the widely accepted four-year halving cycle theory. Business cycle expert Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets) has presented compelling evidence using his Global Economy Index (GEI) that points to a significant shift in Bitcoin’s traditional market patterns.

    Understanding the Global Economy Index (GEI)

    Tomas’s analysis introduces a novel approach to tracking global economic cycles through his proprietary GEI, which combines four key metrics:

    • Inverted trade-weighted dollar index
    • Baltic Dry Index
    • 10-year Chinese Government bond yields
    • Copper/gold ratio

    This composite index has shown remarkable accuracy in predicting previous market cycles, particularly before the 2020 pandemic disruption. The current GEI readings suggest we’re entering a new business cycle that could extend well beyond traditional Bitcoin timing expectations.

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    Bitcoin’s Divergence from Traditional Patterns

    The analysis reveals several key findings that could impact Bitcoin’s future price trajectory:

    • Bitcoin has shown unusual resistance to typical end-of-cycle drawdowns
    • Institutional adoption through ETFs may be reducing market volatility
    • The traditional four-year halving cycle theory could be losing relevance

    Market Implications and Price Outlook

    Currently trading at $79,428, Bitcoin’s price action suggests a potential decoupling from traditional market cycles. However, if the GEI analysis proves correct, investors should prepare for a longer accumulation phase before the next major peak.

    FAQ Section

    Q: Why might the four-year halving cycle theory be invalid?
    A: The increasing institutional adoption and changing market dynamics could be creating new patterns that override the traditional supply-driven cycles.

    Q: What could trigger an earlier peak?
    A: Significant institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, or major macroeconomic shifts could accelerate the timeline.

    Q: How reliable is the GEI as a predictor?
    A: The index has shown strong correlation with previous market cycles, though past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

    Conclusion

    While Bitcoin continues to trade near $80,000, investors should consider adjusting their long-term strategies to account for potentially extended market cycles. The convergence of institutional adoption, changing market dynamics, and global economic factors suggests we may be entering a new era for Bitcoin price patterns.

  • Bitcoin Price Bottom at $38K? Expert Warns of 50% Drop Ahead

    Bitcoin’s recent plunge to $74,000 has sparked intense debate about potential bottom levels, with a respected CMT-certified analyst now forecasting an even deeper correction to the $38,000-$42,000 range. This bearish prediction comes as Bitcoin ETF outflows reach concerning levels, suggesting growing bearish sentiment in the market.

    Elliott Wave Analysis Points to Extended Correction

    Technical analyst Tony Severino’s detailed Elliott Wave analysis reveals that Bitcoin has completed a classic 5-wave impulsive structure near $85,000. The cryptocurrency appears to be entering an ABC corrective pattern that could drive prices significantly lower over the next two years.

    According to Severino’s analysis:

    • Wave A target: $62,000-$65,000 by June 2025
    • Brief Wave B bounce expected
    • Final Wave C bottom: $38,000-$42,000 by April 2026

    Death Cross Confirms Bearish Outlook

    Adding weight to the bearish scenario, Bitcoin has just formed its first Death Cross since September 2024, with the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day MA. This technical pattern historically signals extended downtrends, testing the resolve of long-term holders.

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    Market Cycle Timing

    The projected timeline aligns with Bitcoin’s historical four-year halving cycle, suggesting:

    • Bull market peak: 2025
    • Extended bear phase: Mid-2026
    • Next accumulation phase: Late 2026

    FAQ: Key Questions About Bitcoin’s Bottom

    Q: Why is $38,000 considered a potential bottom?
    A: This level aligns with the iv sub-wave of Wave 3 and represents a typical retracement zone in Elliott Wave theory.

    Q: How reliable are Death Cross signals?
    A: While not infallible, Death Crosses have historically preceded significant downtrends in Bitcoin’s price 70% of the time.

    Q: What could invalidate this bearish scenario?
    A: A sustained break above $85,000 with strong volume would suggest this Elliott Wave count is incorrect.