Defx Insights

Tag: Crypto Metrics

  • Bitcoin MVRV Bearish Cross Signals Potential $105K Support Test

    The Bitcoin market is showing concerning signals as a key on-chain metric forms a bearish pattern. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has crossed below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), potentially foreshadowing significant downside risk for BTC, which currently trades near $105,000.

    Key MVRV Ratio Insights

    According to respected crypto analyst Ali Martinez, Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio has formed a bearish cross by dropping below its 200-day SMA. This technical development mirrors a similar pattern from February 2025, which preceded a notable price decline.

    This bearish signal comes amid broader market uncertainty, as recent market turbulence has pushed Bitcoin closer to critical support levels.

    Understanding MVRV Dynamics

    The MVRV ratio compares two crucial Bitcoin metrics:

    • Market Value: The current total market capitalization based on spot price
    • Realized Value: The aggregate value of all BTC based on their last on-chain movement

    When MVRV crosses below its 200-day moving average, it often indicates:

    • Decreasing profit margins for current holders
    • Potential shift in market sentiment
    • Higher risk of continued downward pressure

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    Market Implications

    The current MVRV bearish cross gains additional significance considering Bitcoin’s recent price action. Recent data shows increased selling pressure from miners, which could amplify the bearish signal’s impact.

    Technical Outlook

    Key levels to watch:

    • Current Price: $105,000
    • Critical Support: $100,000
    • Weekly RSI: Showing potential divergence
    • Volume Profile: Declining buy-side pressure

    FAQ

    What does the MVRV ratio tell us about Bitcoin?
    The MVRV ratio indicates the average profit/loss of all Bitcoin holders based on the price when they acquired their coins versus current market value.

    How reliable is the MVRV bearish cross as a signal?
    Historical data shows the MVRV bearish cross has preceded significant corrections, though past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

    What are the key support levels to watch?
    The psychological $100,000 level represents crucial support, with secondary support at the 200-day moving average near $95,000.

    Conclusion

    While the MVRV bearish cross raises legitimate concerns, investors should consider multiple indicators and maintain appropriate risk management strategies. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether this signal leads to a significant correction or proves to be a temporary deviation.

  • Dogecoin Supply in Profit Hits 77.9%: BTC Leads at 98.4% ATH

    Dogecoin Supply in Profit Hits 77.9%: BTC Leads at 98.4% ATH

    Recent on-chain data reveals a significant milestone for Dogecoin (DOGE), with 77.9% of its total supply now sitting in profit. This development comes as Bitcoin continues to dominate the profitability metrics across major cryptocurrencies, showing an impressive 98.4% of its supply in the green.

    Breaking Down Crypto Supply Profitability Rankings

    According to data from Santiment, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing a notable surge in profitability across multiple assets. Bitcoin’s recent consolidation at higher levels has pushed its supply in profit to near-total market saturation at 98.4%.

    Here’s how the major cryptocurrencies currently rank in terms of supply profitability:

    • Bitcoin (BTC): 98.4%
    • XRP: 90%+
    • Chainlink (LINK): 80.5%
    • Dogecoin (DOGE): 77.9%
    • Ethereum (ETH): 71.5%

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    Market Implications and Analysis

    The high percentage of supply in profit across these assets carries significant market implications:

    1. Bitcoin’s Dominance: BTC’s 98.4% profitability reflects its recent all-time high explorations and sustained bull run
    2. XRP’s Resilience: Despite limited recent growth, XRP maintains strong profitability metrics, suggesting stable holder behavior
    3. Dogecoin’s Position: At 77.9%, DOGE shows healthy profitability while maintaining potential upside room

    Risk Factors and Future Outlook

    While high profitability metrics generally indicate market strength, they also present potential risks:

    • Increased sell pressure from profit-taking
    • Higher volatility potential
    • Possible market corrections

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What does supply in profit mean for crypto assets?

    Supply in profit represents the percentage of circulating tokens currently worth more than their last transaction price, indicating holder profitability.

    Why is Bitcoin’s supply in profit so high?

    Bitcoin’s high profitability reflects its recent all-time highs and strong market performance, with nearly all holders currently in profit.

    What does this mean for Dogecoin’s future price?

    While 77.9% supply in profit suggests healthy market conditions, technical analysis indicates potential for further upside, with some analysts targeting $0.25.

    As the crypto market continues to evolve, these profitability metrics provide valuable insights into holder behavior and potential market movements. Investors should monitor these indicators alongside other technical and fundamental factors for comprehensive market analysis.

  • Bitcoin NVT Signal Flashes Strong Buy as Price Eyes $112K Breakout

    Bitcoin’s Advanced Network Value to Transactions (NVT) metric is signaling sustained bullish momentum despite the recent pullback from $111,970, suggesting the premier cryptocurrency remains on track for new all-time highs. This key on-chain indicator has historically preceded major price rallies, making its current readings particularly noteworthy for investors.

    NVT Signal Maintains Bullish Territory Above Critical Threshold

    According to renowned crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci, Bitcoin’s Advanced NVT signal has crossed and maintained position above the crucial +2 standard deviation level, historically a launchpad for extended bull runs. This development comes as Bitcoin ETF inflows reached $2.75 billion, demonstrating growing institutional confidence in the asset.

    The Advanced NVT metric, which evaluates Bitcoin’s market capitalization against daily USD transaction volume, serves as a key valuation model for determining whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued relative to actual network usage. Current readings suggest strong fundamental support for Bitcoin’s recent price action.

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    Historical Precedent Suggests Further Upside

    Analysis of previous NVT crossovers above the +2SD level, particularly during Q4 2023 and Q4 2024, demonstrates a strong correlation with sustained price appreciation. Despite the current slight downward trajectory of the NVT signal, its maintenance above key threshold levels indicates robust market strength.

    This technical outlook aligns with recent market developments, as analysts project potential rallies to $325,000 by July, supported by improving on-chain metrics and institutional adoption.

    Market Overview and Network Health

    Current market data shows Bitcoin trading at $107,835, with impressive gains of 4.02% and 15.37% over seven and thirty days respectively. Network health indicators remain strong, with:

    • Daily trading volume: $45.94 billion (31.58% decrease)
    • Network fees: 51.03% increase
    • Exchange inflows: $184 million (described as “mild”)
    • Market capitalization: $2.13 trillion

    FAQ Section

    What is the Bitcoin Advanced NVT Signal?

    The Advanced NVT Signal is an on-chain metric that compares Bitcoin’s market cap to daily transaction volume, helping identify whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued.

    Why is the current NVT reading significant?

    The signal’s position above the +2 standard deviation level has historically preceded major bull runs, suggesting potential for continued price appreciation.

    What could impact Bitcoin’s price trajectory?

    Key factors include ETF flows, macroeconomic conditions (particularly US trade policy), and institutional adoption rates.

    As Bitcoin continues to demonstrate strength at these elevated price levels, the Advanced NVT metric provides valuable insight into potential future price action. Investors should monitor this indicator alongside other fundamental and technical factors while maintaining appropriate risk management strategies.

  • Bitcoin at $103K Shows Room for Growth: Mayer Multiple Analysis

    Bitcoin at $103K Shows Room for Growth: Mayer Multiple Analysis

    Bitcoin’s recent surge to $103,000 has sparked discussions about market overheating, but a detailed analysis of the Mayer Multiple suggests there’s still significant room for growth in the current bull cycle.

    Understanding the Mayer Multiple Indicator

    The Mayer Multiple, a key technical indicator tracking Bitcoin’s relationship with its 200-day moving average, currently shows surprisingly moderate readings despite BTC’s impressive price level. This analysis gains particular significance in light of Bitcoin’s historic weekly close above $106K, suggesting a measured climb rather than excessive speculation.

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    Key Findings from the Z-Score Analysis

    The current Mayer Multiple Z-Score remains below its historical mean, with 53% of previous readings showing higher values. This technical positioning suggests Bitcoin’s current price level of $103,000 represents a relatively sustainable growth trajectory rather than a market top.

    Historical Context and Future Implications

    While the indicator has shown improvement from early 2024 lows, it hasn’t reached the extreme levels witnessed during the 2021 bull run. This pattern aligns with recent analysis of funding rates indicating sustainable growth toward higher price targets.

    Market Outlook and Trading Implications

    Current market conditions suggest potential for continued upward momentum, with the next major resistance levels likely emerging as the Z-Score approaches historical mean values. Traders should monitor this indicator alongside other metrics for comprehensive market analysis.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What is the Mayer Multiple indicating about current Bitcoin prices?

    The Mayer Multiple suggests Bitcoin at $103,000 is not overheated, with current readings below historical averages.

    How does this compare to previous bull markets?

    Current readings are notably lower than those seen during the 2021 bull run, indicating potential room for growth.

    What are the implications for traders?

    The moderate readings suggest opportunities for continued upside while maintaining reasonable risk management strategies.

  • Bitcoin Bull Run Signal Missing: Binary CDD Shows Room for Growth

    A critical Bitcoin bull run indicator suggests the current rally may have significant room for growth, according to recent on-chain analysis. The Binary CDD (Coin Days Destroyed) metric, a key measure of long-term holder behavior, remains well below historical peak levels despite Bitcoin trading above $102,000.

    This analysis comes as JPMorgan predicts Bitcoin will outperform gold in 2025, adding further weight to the bullish outlook.

    Understanding the Binary CDD Indicator

    The Binary CDD serves as a sophisticated measure of long-term holder activity in the Bitcoin network. Currently sitting at 0.60, this metric remains notably below the 0.80 level seen during previous market tops, including both the 2021 bull run peak and last year’s rally highs.

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    Key Technical Insights

    The 30-day moving average of the Binary CDD reveals several critical insights:

    • Current reading: 0.60
    • Historical peak: 0.80
    • Previous bull run peaks: 0.80+
    • Upward trajectory maintained despite price increases

    Long-term Holder Behavior Analysis

    While long-term holders are showing remarkable resilience at current price levels, the Binary CDD suggests they haven’t yet reached the profit-taking behavior typically seen at market tops.

    Market Implications

    The current Binary CDD readings suggest:

    • Potential for continued price appreciation
    • Lower selling pressure compared to previous cycles
    • Healthy accumulation phase still in progress
    • Room for further institutional adoption

    FAQ Section

    What is the Binary CDD indicator?

    The Binary CDD is an on-chain metric that measures long-term holder activity, taking values of 0 or 1 based on whether current coin movement is above or below historical averages.

    Why is the current reading significant?

    At 0.60, the current reading suggests the market hasn’t reached the excessive profit-taking behavior typically seen at cycle tops.

    What does this mean for Bitcoin’s price?

    The indicator suggests potential for continued upward movement, as historical patterns show peaks typically occur when the Binary CDD reaches 0.80 or higher.

    Market Outlook

    Bitcoin currently trades at $102,300, showing a 3% increase over the past week. The Binary CDD data, combined with broader market metrics, suggests the potential for continued upward momentum in the current bull cycle.

  • Bitcoin Whales Signal Profit-Taking: Key Metric Hits 5.3 Warning Level

    Bitcoin’s price action continues showing strength near all-time highs, even as key on-chain metrics suggest large holders may be preparing for strategic exits. Currently trading at $103,485, BTC has experienced a minor 0.6% decline over 24 hours while maintaining levels just 5% below its $109,000 peak from January.

    As institutional buying pressure shows signs of cooling at these levels, two critical indicators have caught the attention of analysts tracking whale behavior.

    Binary CDD Signals Growing Whale Activity

    The Binary Coin Days Destroyed (Binary CDD) metric, which tracks the movement of long-dormant Bitcoin, is approaching levels historically associated with distribution phases. CryptoQuant analyst Avocado Onchain notes the indicator currently sits at 0.6 and is trending toward the critical 0.8 threshold that previously coincided with local market tops.

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    Exchange Stablecoins Ratio Flashes Warning

    Adding to potential distribution signals, the Exchange Stablecoins Ratio has climbed to 5.3, exceeding the 5.0 level that previously marked profit-taking phases. This metric, highlighted by analyst EgyHash, suggests increasing selling pressure may be building as traders position for potential exits.

    Market Implications and Trading Outlook

    While these metrics suggest caution, it’s important to note that retail investor participation continues showing strength, potentially providing support at current levels. The combination of institutional profit-taking and sustained retail interest could lead to increased volatility in the near term.

    Key Levels to Watch

    • Immediate Support: $102,850
    • Critical Resistance: $105,000
    • Distribution Trigger: Binary CDD crossing 0.8

    FAQ Section

    What is Binary CDD and why does it matter?

    Binary CDD measures the movement of previously dormant Bitcoin, helping identify when long-term holders become active. High readings often precede significant market moves.

    How reliable is the Exchange Stablecoins Ratio as an indicator?

    Historical data shows the 5.0 threshold has coincided with local tops, though it should be used in conjunction with other metrics for confirmation.

    What could prevent a major sell-off?

    Continued retail adoption and institutional accumulation at lower levels could provide strong support, potentially limiting downside risk.

  • Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Hits 6-Month Low: Warning Signs for BTC Rally?

    Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Hits 6-Month Low: Warning Signs for BTC Rally?

    Bitcoin’s market health indicators are flashing warning signs as the flagship cryptocurrency’s 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio plummets to six-month lows, potentially signaling an extended correction phase ahead. This development comes as BTC tests critical resistance levels around $84,500.

    Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio Signals Market Weakness

    After briefly touching $86,000, Bitcoin has retreated below $84,000, with on-chain metrics suggesting growing pressure on short-term holders. CryptoQuant analyst Gaah reports that the 30-day MVRV ratio has declined to levels not seen since October 2023, indicating potential market exhaustion.

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    Key Market Metrics and Analysis

    The MVRV indicator has entered the bottom of its neutrality band (1.8-2.1), historically a zone that precedes significant price movements. This technical pattern mirrors the market behavior observed during Bitcoin’s previous correction to $50,000, where similar MVRV levels preceded a strong recovery.

    Short-term Holder Dynamics

    Market expert Darkfost’s analysis reveals that short-term holders face an average 10% unrealized loss, with their realized price at $92,800. This key psychological level must be reclaimed to confirm the continuation of the broader uptrend.

    Technical Outlook and Price Implications

    The current MVRV reading of 1.32 suggests short-term holders maintain a 32% average unrealized profit, despite recent market weakness. This metric hasn’t breached its upper bounds since April 2021, when it marked previous cycle tops.

    FAQ Section

    What does the MVRV ratio indicate?

    The MVRV ratio measures the relationship between Bitcoin’s market value and realized value, helping identify whether the price is overvalued or undervalued relative to fair value.

    Why is the current MVRV decline significant?

    The decline to six-month lows suggests growing market weakness and potential for further price corrections, though historical patterns indicate this could also present buying opportunities.

    What levels should traders watch?

    Key levels include the $83,000 support and $92,800 resistance (short-term holder realized price), with the latter being crucial for confirming trend continuation.

  • Ethereum MVRV Ratio Hits 15-Month Low: Bottom Signal Emerges

    Ethereum MVRV Ratio Hits 15-Month Low: Bottom Signal Emerges

    The Ethereum market is showing potential bottom signals as a key on-chain metric reaches levels not seen since December 2022. Data from analytics firm IntoTheBlock reveals the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has plunged to 0.87, suggesting significant oversold conditions that historically precede price recoveries.

    As selling pressure on major exchanges like Binance shows signs of easing, this MVRV reading gains additional significance for potential trend reversal signals.

    Understanding the MVRV Ratio Bottom Signal

    The MVRV ratio compares Ethereum’s current market value against its realized value, effectively measuring whether investors are in profit or loss. When this metric falls below 1.0, it indicates that the average holder is underwater on their position. The current reading of 0.87 reveals:

    • Average ETH holder is facing a 13% unrealized loss
    • Lowest MVRV level since the 2022 bear market bottom
    • Historical precedent for price reversals at similar levels

    Technical Analysis and Market Structure

    The recent 12% price crash to $1,550 has created several technical developments worth noting:

    Price Level Technical Significance
    $1,550 Current support level being tested
    $1,620 Key resistance to reclaim for bullish momentum
    $1,480 Next major support if current level fails

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    Why This MVRV Bottom Could Be Different

    Historical data shows that MVRV bottoms typically coincide with reduced selling pressure, as underwater holders become less likely to exit positions at a loss. Key factors supporting a potential reversal include:

    • Diminishing profit-taking selling pressure
    • Reduced leverage in the system
    • Growing institutional interest in ETH staking

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What does an MVRV ratio below 1 mean?

    An MVRV ratio below 1 indicates that the current market value is below the realized value, meaning the average investor is holding at a loss.

    How reliable is the MVRV ratio as a bottom indicator?

    Historically, extreme low MVRV readings have coincided with market bottoms, though timing the exact bottom remains challenging.

    What could prevent an ETH price recovery?

    Broader market conditions, regulatory developments, or technical vulnerabilities could delay or prevent a price recovery despite favorable MVRV readings.

    Looking Ahead: Key Levels to Watch

    While the MVRV ratio suggests a potential bottom formation, traders should monitor these critical levels:

    • $1,550: Immediate support level
    • $1,620: First major resistance
    • MVRV ratio: Watch for movement above 1.0

    The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether this historical bottom signal translates into a sustained price recovery for Ethereum.

  • Dogecoin Supply in Profit Plunges 10%: Major Price Bottom Signal?

    Recent on-chain data reveals a significant shift in Dogecoin’s profitability metrics, with the popular meme coin experiencing one of the sharpest declines in Supply in Profit among major cryptocurrencies. This development could signal a potential price bottom, according to market analysts.

    Understanding the Supply in Profit Decline

    According to data from Glassnode, Dogecoin’s Supply in Profit has decreased by nearly 10% over the past month, bringing the total percentage of profitable DOGE holdings to 53.6%. This dramatic shift comes as Dogecoin recently experienced a 15% price crash, highlighting the volatile nature of cryptocurrency markets.

    XRP Faces Similar Pressure

    Alongside Dogecoin, XRP has witnessed a notable decline in its Supply in Profit metrics, with a 5.2% decrease bringing its total to 81.5%. This trend aligns with broader market observations, though some analysts remain bullish on XRP’s long-term prospects.

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    Market Implications and Technical Analysis

    The significant decrease in Supply in Profit often serves as a contrarian indicator, potentially signaling a market bottom. Historical data suggests that when profit-taking pressure subsides, assets typically find stronger support levels for future price appreciation.

    Comparative Market Performance

    While DOGE and XRP struggle, other cryptocurrencies like Toncoin (TON) and BNB have seen substantial increases in their Supply in Profit metrics:

    • TON: +23.8% (Total: 94.1%)
    • BNB: +17.4% (Total: 86.3%)
    • Solana: -4.4% (Total: 35.2%)

    Expert Outlook and Price Predictions

    At press time, DOGE is trading at $0.173, representing an 11% weekly decline. However, the reduced profit-taking pressure could set the stage for a potential recovery, particularly if broader market sentiment improves.

    FAQ Section

    What does Supply in Profit indicate?

    Supply in Profit represents the percentage of circulating tokens currently worth more than when they were last moved, providing insight into potential selling pressure.

    Why is decreasing Supply in Profit significant?

    Lower Supply in Profit often indicates reduced selling pressure as fewer holders are sitting on unrealized gains, potentially setting the stage for a price recovery.

    How does this affect Dogecoin’s price outlook?

    The significant decrease in profit-taking pressure could signal a market bottom, potentially creating favorable conditions for a price rebound in the coming weeks.

  • Bitcoin Price Holds $85K: 4 Key Metrics Signal Market Direction

    Bitcoin continues to demonstrate resilience at the $85,000 level, with on-chain metrics providing crucial insights into the market’s next potential move. As recent price action tests key resistance zones, analysts are closely monitoring four critical indicators that could determine Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.

    Market Overview: Bitcoin’s Current Position

    Bitcoin is maintaining stability around $87,000, experiencing only a minor 0.4% decline over the past 24 hours. This relative strength comes after the cryptocurrency briefly touched $88,000 earlier in the week, suggesting continued buying pressure despite market uncertainties.

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    Four Critical On-Chain Metrics Analysis

    1. Internal Funding Pressure (IFP)

    The IFP metric currently sits at 696K, below its 90-day SMA of 794K. Historical data suggests that crossing above the SMA90 typically precedes significant bullish momentum. The current positioning indicates potential accumulation phases before the next upward move.

    2. Bull & Bear Market Cycle Indicator

    Current readings show the DMA30 at -0.16 versus the DMA365 at 0.18. This divergence mirrors previous cycle patterns where temporary bearish signals preceded strong recoveries.

    3. Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV)

    The MVRV score remains below its 365-day SMA, historically a precursor to increased market activity. While this might suggest near-term selling pressure, similar patterns during the August 2024 crisis resolved positively.

    4. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)

    With NUPL at 0.49 compared to its 0.53 moving average, the metric suggests room for growth while staying within healthy market parameters.

    Expert Analysis and Market Implications

    According to CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci, these metrics collectively indicate market turbulence but fall short of suggesting a cycle top. This analysis aligns with recent support level studies that point to strong fundamental backing at current prices.

    Looking Ahead: Market Scenarios

    While short-term uncertainty persists, the broader market structure remains intact. External factors, including recent economic developments and regulatory discussions, continue to influence price action. However, the technical framework suggests Bitcoin maintains the potential for continued upward momentum once current resistance levels are cleared.

    FAQ Section

    What do the current on-chain metrics suggest for Bitcoin’s price?

    The metrics indicate short-term turbulence but don’t suggest a market top, pointing to potential continuation of the broader uptrend once current resistance levels are cleared.

    How does the current market structure compare to previous cycles?

    Current indicators show similarities to previous accumulation phases, particularly the patterns observed during the 2024 market recovery.

    What are the key resistance levels to watch?

    The immediate resistance lies at $88,000, with secondary resistance at the recent high of $89,000.