Defx Insights

Tag: Long-term Holders

  • Bitcoin Holders Signal Major Rally: Long-Term Investors Refuse to Sell at $101K

    Fresh on-chain data reveals a powerful bullish signal for Bitcoin (BTC) as long-term holders demonstrate unprecedented conviction by refusing to sell despite prices hovering near all-time highs. This unusual behavior pattern could indicate significant upside potential ahead for the leading cryptocurrency.

    Long-Term Holders Show Historic HODLing Behavior

    According to recent CryptoQuant analysis, long-term holders (LTHs) – investors who have held Bitcoin for more than 150 days – are displaying remarkably low profit-taking activity even as BTC trades around $101,852. This behavior sharply contrasts with previous market cycles, where approaching all-time highs typically triggered substantial selling pressure.

    The LTH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric is trending downward despite Bitcoin’s steady climb toward $109,000, suggesting these seasoned investors anticipate even higher prices ahead. This aligns with JPMorgan’s recent analysis predicting Bitcoin will significantly outperform gold in 2025.

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    Whale Behavior Supports Bullish Outlook

    Large Bitcoin holders, or “whales,” are demonstrating similar conviction. Data from CryptoQuant contributor BlitzzTrading shows significantly reduced profit-taking compared to previous bull markets, suggesting these sophisticated investors anticipate further upside.

    Gold Comparison Points to $155,000 Target

    The parallel between Bitcoin and gold’s recent performance is particularly noteworthy. With gold surging 75% from $1,800 to $3,200 per ounce since mid-2023, analysts predict Bitcoin could follow a similar trajectory. Crypto analyst Cryptollica projects a potential rise to $155,000 for BTC in 2025.

    FAQ Section

    Why aren’t Bitcoin long-term holders selling?

    Long-term holders appear to believe Bitcoin’s current price levels don’t reflect its full potential value, especially considering institutional adoption and market dynamics.

    What is the significance of whale behavior?

    Reduced selling by whales typically indicates strong conviction in future price appreciation and can lead to reduced selling pressure in the market.

    How does Bitcoin’s performance compare to gold?

    Bitcoin has historically shown higher volatility and greater potential returns than gold, with current market conditions suggesting it could outperform gold’s recent 75% gains.

  • Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Show Selling Pressure as Supply Drops Near $103K

    Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Show Selling Pressure as Supply Drops Near $103K

    Bitcoin continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience above $103,000 despite increasing selling pressure from long-term holders (LTHs). This development comes as whale profit-taking signals reach concerning levels, adding another layer of complexity to BTC’s current market position.

    Long-Term Holder Supply Shows Concerning Trend

    According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin’s long-term holder supply has declined for the second consecutive time in May 2025, marking a significant shift in market dynamics. This follows a substantial accumulation period that saw LTH supply increase from 13.66 million to 14.29 million BTC between March and early May.

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    Key Metrics Signal Market Shift

    The LTH Spending Binary Indicator has surged to 0.43, suggesting increased selling activity among veteran investors. This metric historically precedes local market tops, warranting careful observation of current market conditions.

    Realized Price Analysis

    Despite selling pressure, the realized price for long-term holders has risen to $45,340, indicating strong underlying conviction. This metric represents the average purchase cost of Bitcoin held for over 155 days, with recent data showing accumulation occurring between $90,000-$100,000.

    Market Implications and Future Outlook

    While the current supply reduction doesn’t necessarily signal market weakness, it adds complexity to Bitcoin’s trajectory. Technical analysis suggests potential for continued upward movement, provided key support levels hold.

    FAQ Section

    What does the LTH supply decline mean for Bitcoin’s price?

    The decline in LTH supply typically indicates profit-taking behavior but doesn’t necessarily predict a market downturn. Historical data shows mixed correlations between LTH supply changes and price action.

    How significant is the current selling pressure?

    The 0.43 reading on the LTH Spending Binary Indicator suggests moderate selling pressure, though still below historical peak levels that preceded major market corrections.

    What’s the significance of the $45,340 realized price?

    This price level represents the average cost basis for long-term holders, indicating strong conviction among veteran investors despite recent selling activity.