Defx Insights

Tag: Long-term Holders

  • Bitcoin HODLer Profits Stagnate at $103K Despite $18K Price Jump

    Bitcoin’s long-term holder (LTH) profitability metrics have revealed an intriguing paradox – despite BTC trading at $103,500, HODLer profits remain at levels last seen when the cryptocurrency was priced at $85,000. This analysis explores the underlying factors behind this unexpected trend and what it means for investors.

    Understanding the Bitcoin LTH NUPL Indicator

    The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric for Bitcoin’s long-term holders has returned to 0.69, matching levels from early April 2025 when BTC was trading significantly lower. This development comes as Bitcoin shows signs of resistance near the $109,000 level, suggesting potential market consolidation ahead.

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    Key Findings from On-Chain Analysis

    • LTH NUPL has maintained positive territory throughout 2024-2025
    • Recent market dynamics show decreased profitability despite price appreciation
    • New cohort of December 2024 buyers now classified as long-term holders

    Impact of Recent Bitcoin Price Action

    While Bitcoin has shown remarkable strength, with long-term holders adding substantial positions, the dilution effect from newer entrants has created an interesting dynamic in profitability metrics.

    FAQ Section

    Why are HODLer profits unchanged despite higher prices?

    The inclusion of December 2024 buyers into the LTH category has diluted the overall profit metrics, as these investors bought at higher price levels.

    What does this mean for Bitcoin’s price outlook?

    Historical data suggests periods of profit consolidation often precede significant market moves, though past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

    How does this affect new investors?

    The current market structure provides a unique opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin while long-term holder profits consolidate.

    Market Implications and Future Outlook

    The current profit dynamics suggest a maturing market where rapid gains are being balanced by broader holder distribution. This could indicate a more sustainable growth pattern for Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.

  • Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Add 339K BTC: Bullish Signal at $100K Level

    Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Add 339K BTC: Bullish Signal at $100K Level

    Bitcoin’s price action at the critical $100,000 level has gained significant support from long-term holders (LTH), who have accumulated 339,000 BTC since April 4. This massive accumulation comes as Bitcoin tests resistance near $105,000, suggesting strong conviction despite short-term market uncertainty.

    Long-Term Holder Accumulation Signals Market Confidence

    According to data from CryptoQuant, long-term holders have increased their total holdings to 14,370,338 BTC—a record figure that demonstrates unwavering confidence in Bitcoin’s future value. This accumulation pattern aligns with previous reports of holder behavior, where investors have shown remarkable resilience even as prices test new highs.

    Technical Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Levels

    Bitcoin currently trades in a consolidation phase between $103,600 and $104,800, with multiple tests of the $105,000 resistance zone. The 200-period EMA and SMA provide strong technical support, while decreased trading volume suggests a potential breakout setup.

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    Market Outlook and Price Targets

    While short-term traders remain cautious, the substantial LTH accumulation suggests a strong foundation for future price appreciation. Analysts maintain bullish long-term targets, with key resistance levels at $105,000 and $110,000.

    FAQ Section

    Q: What is the significance of long-term holder accumulation?
    A: LTH accumulation typically indicates strong market conviction and often precedes major price rallies.

    Q: What are the key support levels to watch?
    A: Critical support levels include $103,600 and the psychological $100,000 mark.

    Q: How does this accumulation compare to previous cycles?
    A: The current accumulation of 339,000 BTC represents one of the largest sustained buying periods in Bitcoin’s history.

  • Bitcoin Holders Signal Major Rally: Long-Term Investors Refuse to Sell at $101K

    Fresh on-chain data reveals a powerful bullish signal for Bitcoin (BTC) as long-term holders demonstrate unprecedented conviction by refusing to sell despite prices hovering near all-time highs. This unusual behavior pattern could indicate significant upside potential ahead for the leading cryptocurrency.

    Long-Term Holders Show Historic HODLing Behavior

    According to recent CryptoQuant analysis, long-term holders (LTHs) – investors who have held Bitcoin for more than 150 days – are displaying remarkably low profit-taking activity even as BTC trades around $101,852. This behavior sharply contrasts with previous market cycles, where approaching all-time highs typically triggered substantial selling pressure.

    The LTH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric is trending downward despite Bitcoin’s steady climb toward $109,000, suggesting these seasoned investors anticipate even higher prices ahead. This aligns with JPMorgan’s recent analysis predicting Bitcoin will significantly outperform gold in 2025.

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    Whale Behavior Supports Bullish Outlook

    Large Bitcoin holders, or “whales,” are demonstrating similar conviction. Data from CryptoQuant contributor BlitzzTrading shows significantly reduced profit-taking compared to previous bull markets, suggesting these sophisticated investors anticipate further upside.

    Gold Comparison Points to $155,000 Target

    The parallel between Bitcoin and gold’s recent performance is particularly noteworthy. With gold surging 75% from $1,800 to $3,200 per ounce since mid-2023, analysts predict Bitcoin could follow a similar trajectory. Crypto analyst Cryptollica projects a potential rise to $155,000 for BTC in 2025.

    FAQ Section

    Why aren’t Bitcoin long-term holders selling?

    Long-term holders appear to believe Bitcoin’s current price levels don’t reflect its full potential value, especially considering institutional adoption and market dynamics.

    What is the significance of whale behavior?

    Reduced selling by whales typically indicates strong conviction in future price appreciation and can lead to reduced selling pressure in the market.

    How does Bitcoin’s performance compare to gold?

    Bitcoin has historically shown higher volatility and greater potential returns than gold, with current market conditions suggesting it could outperform gold’s recent 75% gains.

  • Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Show Selling Pressure as Supply Drops Near $103K

    Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Show Selling Pressure as Supply Drops Near $103K

    Bitcoin continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience above $103,000 despite increasing selling pressure from long-term holders (LTHs). This development comes as whale profit-taking signals reach concerning levels, adding another layer of complexity to BTC’s current market position.

    Long-Term Holder Supply Shows Concerning Trend

    According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin’s long-term holder supply has declined for the second consecutive time in May 2025, marking a significant shift in market dynamics. This follows a substantial accumulation period that saw LTH supply increase from 13.66 million to 14.29 million BTC between March and early May.

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    Key Metrics Signal Market Shift

    The LTH Spending Binary Indicator has surged to 0.43, suggesting increased selling activity among veteran investors. This metric historically precedes local market tops, warranting careful observation of current market conditions.

    Realized Price Analysis

    Despite selling pressure, the realized price for long-term holders has risen to $45,340, indicating strong underlying conviction. This metric represents the average purchase cost of Bitcoin held for over 155 days, with recent data showing accumulation occurring between $90,000-$100,000.

    Market Implications and Future Outlook

    While the current supply reduction doesn’t necessarily signal market weakness, it adds complexity to Bitcoin’s trajectory. Technical analysis suggests potential for continued upward movement, provided key support levels hold.

    FAQ Section

    What does the LTH supply decline mean for Bitcoin’s price?

    The decline in LTH supply typically indicates profit-taking behavior but doesn’t necessarily predict a market downturn. Historical data shows mixed correlations between LTH supply changes and price action.

    How significant is the current selling pressure?

    The 0.43 reading on the LTH Spending Binary Indicator suggests moderate selling pressure, though still below historical peak levels that preceded major market corrections.

    What’s the significance of the $45,340 realized price?

    This price level represents the average cost basis for long-term holders, indicating strong conviction among veteran investors despite recent selling activity.