Coinbase Stock Plunges 30% as Trump Tariff Fears Shake Crypto Markets

Coinbase (COIN) faces significant headwinds as President Trump’s fluctuating tariff policies cast a shadow over retail crypto trading activity, according to a new Oppenheimer report that has slashed revenue forecasts for the leading U.S. crypto exchange. This follows broader market uncertainty around U.S. tariff policies that continues to impact crypto markets.

Key Takeaways:

• Trading volume forecast cut by 19% to $1.3 trillion for full year
• Q1 estimate reduced to $380 billion, down 13% quarter-over-quarter
• Stock price target lowered from $388 to $279
• Coinbase maintains 69% market share of U.S. spot trading

Market Impact Analysis

Despite an increasingly crypto-friendly regulatory environment in Washington, retail participation remains subdued. Coinbase stock has underperformed both Bitcoin (down 10%) and the S&P 500 (down 8%) this year, highlighting the platform’s vulnerability to macro uncertainties.

Market Share Strength

A silver lining emerges in Coinbase’s dominant market position, commanding 69% of U.S. spot trading volume in February. This represents significant gains against competitors like Robinhood, though maintaining this advantage will depend on market recovery.

Expert Outlook

“As a focused leader in crypto with optionality in tokenization and payments use cases, we believe COIN can command a premium,” notes Oppenheimer analyst Owen Lau, maintaining an outperform rating despite near-term challenges.

FAQ Section

How has Coinbase stock performed in 2025?

Coinbase stock has fallen 30% year-to-date, underperforming both Bitcoin and the broader market.

What is Coinbase’s current market share?

Coinbase holds 69% of U.S. spot crypto trading volume as of February 2025.

What is Oppenheimer’s new price target for Coinbase?

Oppenheimer has lowered its price target from $388 to $279 while maintaining an outperform rating.

Looking Ahead

While current market conditions present challenges, Oppenheimer remains optimistic about Coinbase’s long-term potential, particularly if tariff tensions ease. The exchange’s strong market position and diverse revenue streams could support a recovery once macro conditions improve.