Defx Insights

Tag: technical analysis

  • Bitcoin Buy Signal Emerges as BTC Tests Critical $78K Support Level

    Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of a potential trend reversal as multiple technical indicators align at a crucial support level. Leading crypto analysts have identified key buy signals that could mark the end of Bitcoin’s recent downtrend, which has seen the cryptocurrency drop nearly 30% from its 2025 peak.

    In a significant development that coincides with yesterday’s tariff-induced market turmoil, prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez has identified a weekly TD Sequential buy signal for Bitcoin. This technical indicator has historically preceded major price reversals, suggesting that selling pressure may be approaching exhaustion.

    Technical Analysis Points to Potential Bitcoin Recovery

    The weekly TD Sequential buy signal is particularly noteworthy as it emerges while BTC trades near the critical $78,000 support level. This indicator typically manifests when a specific 9-count pattern completes, often marking the end of a prolonged downtrend.

    Adding weight to the bullish case, analyst Titan of Crypto highlights that Bitcoin is currently trading within a key reversal zone. The cryptocurrency remains above the crucial 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting the broader uptrend remains intact despite recent volatility.

    SPONSORED

    Maximize your trading potential with up to 100x leverage on perpetual contracts

    Trade Now on Defx

    Market Context and Historical Perspective

    While the recent 26.6% decline from Bitcoin’s all-time high of $109,500 has rattled some investors, historical data suggests this pullback is relatively mild compared to previous market cycles. For context, BTC experienced significantly deeper corrections of 83% in 2018 and 73% in 2022.

    Looking Ahead: Key Levels to Watch

    Despite the emerging buy signals, traders should remain cautious as several technical indicators suggest the market may need more time to establish a solid bottom. The recent formation of a death cross pattern could signal additional short-term volatility before a sustained recovery takes hold.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    Q: What is the TD Sequential buy signal?
    A: It’s a technical indicator that identifies potential trend reversals based on a specific 9-count pattern in price action.

    Q: How significant is the current Bitcoin correction?
    A: The current 26.6% decline is relatively modest compared to historical corrections, which have exceeded 70-80%.

    Q: What key support levels should traders watch?
    A: The $78,000 level and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level are crucial support zones to monitor.

  • Bitcoin Whales Accumulate as Open Interest Drops 17% – Reversal Signal?

    Bitcoin Whales Accumulate as Open Interest Drops 17% – Reversal Signal?

    Bitcoin’s price action continues to face downward pressure, with the leading cryptocurrency testing critical support levels below $80,000. The latest on-chain data reveals a fascinating divergence between leveraged traders exiting positions and whale wallets aggressively accumulating – potentially signaling an upcoming trend reversal.

    As noted in recent whale accumulation analysis, large holders have been strategically increasing their positions during this correction phase.

    Open Interest Flush Signals Market Reset

    According to CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn, Bitcoin’s open interest metric has experienced a dramatic 17.8% decline over the past week. This substantial reduction in outstanding derivative contracts suggests leveraged traders are rapidly unwinding positions amid recent volatility.

    Historical data indicates that such sharp drops in open interest often precede significant market rebounds, as excessive leverage gets flushed out of the system. The current decline has eliminated billions in leveraged positions, potentially creating healthier market conditions for a sustained recovery.

    SPONSORED

    Trade Bitcoin with up to 100x leverage on perpetual contracts

    Trade Now on Defx

    Whale Accumulation Reaches Record Levels

    While leveraged traders exit, on-chain data reveals substantial whale accumulation. CryptoQuant contributor Onchained reports that accumulating addresses have increased their holdings from 800,000 BTC in 2023 to over 3 million BTC in 2025, with realized capitalization surging from $20 billion to $160 billion.

    This aggressive buying behavior, even during Bitcoin’s climb to new highs, demonstrates strong conviction from institutional players. The growing gap between retail and whale realized capitalization suggests high-capital investors are positioning for long-term appreciation.

    Market Implications and Future Outlook

    The combination of declining leverage and increasing whale accumulation creates an intriguing market dynamic. Three key implications emerge:

    • Growing supply constraints as more BTC moves to inactive wallets
    • Strong holder conviction across market cycles
    • Potential for significant supply shocks as accumulation continues

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What does declining open interest mean for Bitcoin’s price?

    Declining open interest typically indicates deleveraging in the market, which can create healthier conditions for sustainable price appreciation once excessive speculation is removed.

    How significant is the current whale accumulation?

    The increase from 800,000 to 3 million BTC held by accumulating addresses represents one of the largest concentrated accumulation phases in Bitcoin’s history.

    What are the key price levels to watch?

    Current critical support sits at $78,000, with major resistance at the recent high of $109,000. The market structure suggests these levels will be important for determining the next major trend.

  • Dogecoin Price Alert: DOGE Risks 15% Drop Below $0.13 Support

    Dogecoin Price Alert: DOGE Risks 15% Drop Below $0.13 Support

    Dogecoin (DOGE) is showing significant bearish momentum as the popular meme coin faces mounting selling pressure. Technical analysis reveals DOGE could be on the verge of another major decline, potentially dropping as much as 15% from current levels.

    The latest price action shows DOGE/USD failing to maintain support above $0.1650, with bears pushing the price below several critical support levels. This decline aligns with earlier predictions of DOGE testing the critical $0.13 support level, suggesting a broader market weakness for meme coins.

    Key Technical Levels for DOGE

    • Current Price: Trading below $0.1600 and the 100-hourly SMA
    • Critical Support: $0.1380 and $0.1320
    • Major Resistance: $0.1500 and $0.1550
    • Bearish Pattern: Trend line resistance at $0.160

    Market Analysis and Price Outlook

    The technical indicators paint a concerning picture for DOGE holders:

    • MACD showing increasing bearish momentum
    • RSI below 50, indicating sustained selling pressure
    • Price action forming lower highs and lower lows

    SPONSORED

    Trade DOGE with up to 100x leverage and maximize your profit potential

    Trade Now on Defx

    Potential Scenarios and Price Targets

    If DOGE fails to reclaim the $0.150 level, we could see:

    • Initial drop to $0.1380
    • Further decline to $0.1320
    • Worst case scenario: $0.1200 or even $0.1120

    Recovery Scenarios

    For bulls to regain control, DOGE needs to:

    • Break above $0.160 resistance
    • Confirm close above the 100-hourly SMA
    • Target $0.1720 as first major resistance

    FAQ

    Q: What’s causing the current DOGE price decline?
    A: Technical factors including bearish trend line resistance and failure to hold key support levels are driving the current downward pressure.

    Q: Where is the next major support level?
    A: The next significant support lies at $0.1320, with $0.1280 serving as the main support level.

    Q: What would signal a potential recovery?
    A: A decisive break above $0.160 with strong volume would indicate potential trend reversal.

  • XRP Price Targets $1.40 Support as ABC Correction Nears Completion

    XRP Price Targets $1.40 Support as ABC Correction Nears Completion

    XRP’s price action is entering a critical phase as a textbook ABC correction pattern nears completion, potentially offering strategic entry points for traders. This technical development comes amid broader crypto market uncertainty, with XRP recently breaking below key support levels.

    Understanding the ABC Correction Pattern

    Renowned crypto analyst Blockchain Backer has identified XRP’s current price movement as following a classic ABC corrective wave structure. This technical formation typically signals a temporary pullback before resuming the previous trend. Key observations include:

    • Wave A: Initial sharp decline completed
    • Wave B: Temporary relief rally exhausted
    • Wave C: Final leg targeting $1.40-$1.50 support zone

    Technical Indicators and Price Targets

    The analysis reveals several critical technical factors:

    • Price has broken below the 200-day Moving Average
    • Support zone aligns with 0.786 Fibonacci retracement
    • Potential 24% decline from current levels to reach target zone

    SPONSORED

    Trade XRP with up to 100x leverage on perpetual contracts

    Trade Now on Defx

    Recent Market Activity

    In the last 48 hours, XRP has demonstrated significant volatility:

    • Price dropped to $1.68 (20% decline)
    • Recovered to $1.86 (9.62% bounce)
    • Trading volume increased by 13.14%

    Expert Analysis and Outlook

    While the current correction may test trader patience, historical data suggests these patterns often precede significant recoveries. Recent analysis indicates longer-term bullish targets remain viable despite short-term weakness.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What is an ABC correction pattern?

    An ABC correction is a three-wave pattern that represents a temporary price pullback within a larger trend. It’s commonly used in Elliott Wave Theory to identify potential reversal points.

    When might the correction complete?

    Based on current projections, the correction could complete once prices reach the $1.40-$1.50 support zone, though exact timing depends on market conditions.

    What are the key levels to watch?

    Critical levels include the current support at $1.68, the target zone of $1.40-$1.50, and the 200-day moving average as resistance.

  • Bitcoin Peak Delayed Until 2026: Business Cycle Analysis Challenges 4-Year Theory

    A comprehensive business cycle analysis suggests Bitcoin’s next major price peak could be delayed until late 2026, potentially disrupting the widely accepted four-year halving cycle theory. Business cycle expert Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets) has presented compelling evidence using his Global Economy Index (GEI) that points to a significant shift in Bitcoin’s traditional market patterns.

    Understanding the Global Economy Index (GEI)

    Tomas’s analysis introduces a novel approach to tracking global economic cycles through his proprietary GEI, which combines four key metrics:

    • Inverted trade-weighted dollar index
    • Baltic Dry Index
    • 10-year Chinese Government bond yields
    • Copper/gold ratio

    This composite index has shown remarkable accuracy in predicting previous market cycles, particularly before the 2020 pandemic disruption. The current GEI readings suggest we’re entering a new business cycle that could extend well beyond traditional Bitcoin timing expectations.

    SPONSORED

    Trade Bitcoin with up to 100x leverage on perpetual contracts

    Trade Now on Defx

    Bitcoin’s Divergence from Traditional Patterns

    The analysis reveals several key findings that could impact Bitcoin’s future price trajectory:

    • Bitcoin has shown unusual resistance to typical end-of-cycle drawdowns
    • Institutional adoption through ETFs may be reducing market volatility
    • The traditional four-year halving cycle theory could be losing relevance

    Market Implications and Price Outlook

    Currently trading at $79,428, Bitcoin’s price action suggests a potential decoupling from traditional market cycles. However, if the GEI analysis proves correct, investors should prepare for a longer accumulation phase before the next major peak.

    FAQ Section

    Q: Why might the four-year halving cycle theory be invalid?
    A: The increasing institutional adoption and changing market dynamics could be creating new patterns that override the traditional supply-driven cycles.

    Q: What could trigger an earlier peak?
    A: Significant institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, or major macroeconomic shifts could accelerate the timeline.

    Q: How reliable is the GEI as a predictor?
    A: The index has shown strong correlation with previous market cycles, though past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

    Conclusion

    While Bitcoin continues to trade near $80,000, investors should consider adjusting their long-term strategies to account for potentially extended market cycles. The convergence of institutional adoption, changing market dynamics, and global economic factors suggests we may be entering a new era for Bitcoin price patterns.

  • XRP Price Warning: $1.90 Resistance Could Trigger 15% Drop

    XRP’s price action is showing concerning signals as the cryptocurrency struggles to maintain support above $1.90, with technical indicators suggesting an imminent bearish move that could lead to significant losses.

    Key XRP Price Levels to Watch

    XRP has entered a critical phase after failing to hold above the psychological $2.00 level. The digital asset is currently facing multiple technical hurdles that could trigger further downside movement. This follows the recent breakdown below $2.00, which has established a series of lower highs and lower lows.

    Technical Analysis Breakdown

    • Current price: Trading below $1.850 and the 100-hourly SMA
    • Key resistance: Bearish trendline at $1.90
    • Critical support: $1.750 and $1.70
    • Recent low: $1.610

    Bearish Indicators Mount

    Multiple technical factors are aligning to suggest continued downside pressure:

    • MACD showing increasing bearish momentum
    • RSI below 50, indicating bearish control
    • Price trading below key moving averages
    • Formation of a bearish trend line at $1.90

    SPONSORED

    Trade XRP with up to 100x leverage on perpetual contracts

    Trade Now on Defx

    Potential Price Scenarios

    If XRP fails to break above $1.90, we could see:

    • Initial drop to $1.750 support
    • Further decline to $1.70 if support breaks
    • Worst case scenario: Test of $1.60 zone

    Recovery Scenarios

    For bulls to regain control, XRP needs to:

    • Break above $1.90 resistance
    • Clear $2.00 psychological level
    • Target $2.050 and $2.0650 resistance zones

    FAQ

    Q: What’s causing XRP’s current price weakness?
    A: Technical factors including bearish trend line formation and trading below key moving averages are primary contributors.

    Q: What’s the key level to watch for recovery?
    A: The $1.90 resistance is crucial – a clear break above could signal trend reversal.

    Q: How low could XRP go in worst-case scenario?
    A: If support at $1.70 breaks, XRP could test the $1.60 zone.

    Conclusion

    XRP faces significant technical challenges ahead, with multiple indicators suggesting continued bearish pressure. Traders should watch the $1.90 resistance level closely while maintaining strict risk management practices.

  • Ethereum Price Hits Capitulation Zone at $1,471: Recovery Signals Emerge

    Ethereum Price Hits Capitulation Zone at $1,471: Recovery Signals Emerge

    Ethereum (ETH) has entered a critical capitulation phase as prices dipped to $1,471 before showing signs of recovery. The leading smart contract platform is currently trading at $1,570, marking a 4.8% rebound that has caught the attention of market analysts and investors alike. This price movement follows the recent broader market decline that has tested critical support levels.

    Understanding Ethereum’s Realized Price Metric

    The Realized Price metric has emerged as a crucial indicator for understanding ETH’s current market position. This on-chain metric calculates the network’s value based on the last transfer price of each coin, providing valuable insights into investor behavior and market sentiment.

    SPONSORED

    Trade Ethereum with up to 100x leverage on perpetual contracts

    Trade Now on Defx

    Key Market Implications

    According to CryptoQuant analyst theKriptolik, ETH trading below its Realized Price typically signals three important developments:

    • Increased selling pressure from investors realizing losses
    • Potential market capitulation phase
    • Historical correlation with market bottoms

    Historical Context and Future Outlook

    Past data reveals a consistent pattern where ETH’s dip below Realized Price has preceded significant recoveries. This historical precedent suggests the current market conditions could present a strategic accumulation opportunity for long-term investors.

    FAQ Section

    What is Ethereum’s Realized Price?

    Realized Price represents the average price at which all ETH tokens last moved on the blockchain, providing a more realistic view of the market’s cost basis.

    Why is the current price level significant?

    Trading below Realized Price often indicates a market bottom and potential accumulation zone, historically preceding strong recoveries.

    What are the key support levels to watch?

    Current critical support levels include $1,400 and the Realized Price level, with resistance forming around $1,600.

  • Ethereum Price Crashes 10% to $1,410 – Critical Support Tested

    Ethereum Price Crashes 10% to $1,410 – Critical Support Tested

    Ethereum (ETH) has experienced a sharp 10% decline, with the price plummeting below multiple support levels and testing a critical threshold at $1,410. This significant drop mirrors broader cryptocurrency market weakness and could signal further downside ahead.

    As previously reported, the $1,400 level represents a crucial support zone that bulls need to defend to prevent additional losses.

    Key Technical Levels Under Pressure

    The latest price action shows several bearish developments:

    • Price failed to hold above $1,620 support
    • Trading below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average
    • Bearish trend line resistance at $1,520
    • RSI indicating oversold conditions below 50

    SPONSORED

    Trade ETH with up to 100x leverage and maximize your profit potential

    Trade Now on Defx

    Critical Support Levels to Watch

    Traders should monitor these key support zones:

    • Primary support: $1,410
    • Secondary support: $1,385
    • Last line of defense: $1,320

    Potential Recovery Scenarios

    For any meaningful recovery, ETH needs to:

    1. Break above $1,520 resistance
    2. Reclaim the $1,560 level
    3. Push toward $1,620 to invalidate the bearish setup

    Expert Analysis

    Technical indicators suggest continued bearish momentum:

    • MACD showing increasing bearish momentum
    • RSI below 50, indicating seller control
    • Volume profile supporting the downward move

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What caused Ethereum’s price drop?

    The decline appears driven by broader market weakness, technical resistance failures, and increased selling pressure at higher levels.

    Will ETH bounce from $1,410 support?

    While historically significant, the $1,410 level needs strong buying volume to act as reliable support.

    What’s the worst-case scenario?

    If $1,385 breaks, ETH could test deeper support at $1,320 or even $1,240 in extreme cases.

    Traders should maintain strict risk management and watch for potential reversal signals near the identified support levels.

  • Bitcoin Price Plunges Below $75K – Key Support Levels to Watch

    Bitcoin’s price trajectory has taken a bearish turn, with BTC dropping sharply below the critical $78,000 level as market sentiment shifts. This comprehensive analysis examines the key support and resistance levels traders should monitor, along with technical indicators suggesting potential price direction.

    Bitcoin’s Latest Price Movement Analysis

    In a significant market development that follows recent tests of the $80,000 support level, Bitcoin has entered a decisive bearish phase. The flagship cryptocurrency has broken several key support levels:

    • Initial breach below $78,500
    • Sharp decline through $77,000
    • Critical support at $75,000 compromised
    • New local low established at $74,475

    Technical Analysis and Key Levels

    The current price action shows several bearish indicators:

    • Trading below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average
    • Bearish trend line resistance at $79,500
    • RSI below 50, indicating bearish momentum
    • MACD gaining momentum in the bearish zone

    SPONSORED

    Trade Bitcoin with up to 100x leverage and maximize your profit potential

    Trade Now on Defx

    Critical Support and Resistance Levels

    Traders should monitor these key price levels:

    Resistance Levels:

    • Primary resistance: $78,500
    • Secondary resistance: $79,500
    • Major resistance: $81,500

    Support Levels:

    • Immediate support: $75,750
    • Critical support: $74,750
    • Major support: $70,000

    Market Outlook and Trading Implications

    The current price action suggests two potential scenarios:

    Bullish Scenario:

    A break above $79,500 could trigger a rally toward $81,500, with potential extension to $82,000.

    Bearish Scenario:

    Failure to reclaim $78,500 could lead to further decline, potentially testing the $72,000 support level.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What caused Bitcoin’s recent price drop?

    The decline appears technical in nature, following repeated tests of the $80,000 resistance level and broader market uncertainty.

    Could Bitcoin fall below $70,000?

    While $70,000 represents major psychological support, a break below current levels could trigger increased selling pressure toward this mark.

    What technical indicators should traders watch?

    Key indicators include the 100-hour SMA, RSI levels, and the MACD momentum indicator for potential trend reversals.

  • Bitcoin Price Bottom at $38K? Expert Warns of 50% Drop Ahead

    Bitcoin’s recent plunge to $74,000 has sparked intense debate about potential bottom levels, with a respected CMT-certified analyst now forecasting an even deeper correction to the $38,000-$42,000 range. This bearish prediction comes as Bitcoin ETF outflows reach concerning levels, suggesting growing bearish sentiment in the market.

    Elliott Wave Analysis Points to Extended Correction

    Technical analyst Tony Severino’s detailed Elliott Wave analysis reveals that Bitcoin has completed a classic 5-wave impulsive structure near $85,000. The cryptocurrency appears to be entering an ABC corrective pattern that could drive prices significantly lower over the next two years.

    According to Severino’s analysis:

    • Wave A target: $62,000-$65,000 by June 2025
    • Brief Wave B bounce expected
    • Final Wave C bottom: $38,000-$42,000 by April 2026

    Death Cross Confirms Bearish Outlook

    Adding weight to the bearish scenario, Bitcoin has just formed its first Death Cross since September 2024, with the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day MA. This technical pattern historically signals extended downtrends, testing the resolve of long-term holders.

    SPONSORED

    Protect your portfolio with up to 100x leverage on perpetual contracts

    Trade Now on Defx

    Market Cycle Timing

    The projected timeline aligns with Bitcoin’s historical four-year halving cycle, suggesting:

    • Bull market peak: 2025
    • Extended bear phase: Mid-2026
    • Next accumulation phase: Late 2026

    FAQ: Key Questions About Bitcoin’s Bottom

    Q: Why is $38,000 considered a potential bottom?
    A: This level aligns with the iv sub-wave of Wave 3 and represents a typical retracement zone in Elliott Wave theory.

    Q: How reliable are Death Cross signals?
    A: While not infallible, Death Crosses have historically preceded significant downtrends in Bitcoin’s price 70% of the time.

    Q: What could invalidate this bearish scenario?
    A: A sustained break above $85,000 with strong volume would suggest this Elliott Wave count is incorrect.