Defx Insights

Tag: technical analysis

  • Bitcoin Price at Critical $107K Support: Trump Tariffs Spark Market Uncertainty

    Bitcoin’s price action has entered a decisive phase following former President Trump’s unexpected announcement of 50% EU tariffs, with the leading cryptocurrency currently testing crucial support at $107,000. The announcement triggered an immediate selloff from the recent all-time high of $111,800, raising questions about Bitcoin’s next directional move.

    This market reaction comes as Bitcoin ETFs continue to see massive inflows, recently hitting $2.75 billion, highlighting the contrast between institutional confidence and short-term market volatility.

    Technical Analysis: Fair Value Gaps Define Key Levels

    According to prominent crypto analyst TehThomas, Bitcoin’s price structure is currently compressed between two significant fair value gaps (FVGs):

    • Lower FVG: $107,500 (Critical support level)
    • Upper FVG: $109,800-$110,700 (Resistance zone)

    This technical setup aligns with recent analysis warning of potential pullback risks at these levels, suggesting a period of heightened volatility ahead.

    SPONSORED

    Trade Bitcoin with up to 100x leverage and maximize your profit potential

    Trade Now on Defx

    Bullish vs Bearish Scenarios

    The market faces two potential scenarios:

    Bullish Case:

    • Support holds at $107,500
    • Breakout above $110,700
    • New target: $113,000

    Bearish Case:

    • Break below $107,500
    • Drop to $106,000 liquidity pool
    • Potential further downside if $106,000 fails

    Market Impact of Trump’s Tariff Announcement

    The proposed 50% tariff on EU imports represents a significant macroeconomic shock that could continue influencing crypto markets. This development comes as experts warn about potential dollar instability from Trump’s economic policies.

    FAQ Section

    What caused Bitcoin’s recent price drop?

    The immediate catalyst was Trump’s announcement of 50% tariffs on EU imports, triggering a broader market selloff.

    What are the key price levels to watch?

    Critical support lies at $107,500, with resistance between $109,800-$110,700.

    Could Bitcoin reach new all-time highs soon?

    A break above $110,700 could trigger a push toward $113,000, but significant buying pressure would be needed.

    At time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $107,017, with market participants closely monitoring volume patterns for confirmation of the next major move.

  • Bitcoin Price Eyes $120K After Post-Halving Consolidation Near $112K

    Bitcoin Price Eyes $120K After Post-Halving Consolidation Near $112K

    Bitcoin (BTC) is showing strong signs of breaking out of its post-halving consolidation phase, with prices hovering near all-time highs after reaching $112,000 this week. The leading cryptocurrency appears poised for its next major move as key technical and on-chain metrics align with historical cycle patterns.

    According to data from Sentora (formerly IntoTheBlock), Bitcoin’s current market structure closely mirrors previous post-halving periods, albeit with some notable differences. The surge in ETF inflows to $2.75B has added a new dynamic to this cycle, potentially accelerating price discovery.

    Post-Halving Pattern Shows Similarities to Previous Cycles

    Historical data reveals that Bitcoin typically undergoes a prolonged consolidation phase in the year following each halving before entering its strongest rally phase. While this cycle saw an earlier-than-expected price spike, the subsequent consolidation at higher levels suggests healthy market dynamics.

    Sentora’s analysis indicates that Bitcoin peaks traditionally emerge 1.5 to 2 years post-halving, putting the spotlight on late 2025 for potential cycle highs. Recent on-chain metrics support this thesis, with whale holdings remaining stable despite price volatility.

    SPONSORED

    Trade Bitcoin with up to 100x leverage on perpetual contracts

    Trade Now on Defx

    Technical Analysis Points to Further Upside

    The weekly chart shows impressive strength with four consecutive green candles and a potential highest weekly close in history near $108,000. The previous resistance at $103,600 has flipped to support, establishing a solid foundation for the next leg up.

    Key Support and Resistance Levels

    • Critical Support: $103,600-$105,000
    • Current Resistance: $112,000
    • Next Target: $120,000
    • 34-week EMA: $87,966

    FAQ: Bitcoin’s Post-Halving Outlook

    Q: When could Bitcoin reach its cycle peak?
    A: Historical patterns suggest a potential peak between Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, approximately 1.5-2 years post-halving.

    Q: What are the key resistance levels to watch?
    A: The immediate resistance lies at $112,000, with $120,000 representing the next major psychological barrier.

    Q: How does this cycle compare to previous ones?
    A: While following similar patterns, this cycle has been uniquely influenced by institutional adoption and ETF inflows, potentially leading to more sustained growth.

    As Bitcoin continues to consolidate above $100,000, the market appears to be gathering strength for its next major move. With institutional interest growing and technical indicators remaining bullish, the stage may be set for the next phase of this bull cycle.

  • Bitcoin Price Warning: Short-Term Holders Signal $109K Top Formation

    Bitcoin Price Warning: Short-Term Holders Signal $109K Top Formation

    Bitcoin’s recent price action shows potential signs of a local top formation, as on-chain data reveals significant distribution from short-term holders (STH) near the $109,000 level. This analysis comes as Bitcoin ETF inflows reached a staggering $2.75 billion, highlighting the contrast between institutional and retail investor behavior.

    Short-Term Holder Distribution Patterns Emerge

    According to investment data firm Alphractal, Bitcoin’s short-term holders have begun a notable distribution phase, historically a precursor to significant market corrections. The Bitcoin Supply Held by Short-Term Holders indicator, which tracks BTC owned for less than 155 days, shows a concerning downward trend.

    SPONSORED

    Trade Bitcoin with up to 100x leverage on perpetual contracts

    Trade Now on Defx

    Key Support Levels and Price Implications

    The current STH realized price stands at $94,500, representing a crucial support level. Meanwhile, long-term holders maintain a significantly lower cost basis at $33,000, indicating a stark behavioral divergence between investor cohorts. This pattern aligns with recent technical analysis suggesting key support levels could trigger a pullback.

    Market Outlook and Future Projections

    Despite the distribution signals, historical data suggests Bitcoin could still achieve new highs before a significant correction. The macro analysis points to October 2025 as a potential timeline for a major market shift, coinciding with post-halving cycle patterns.

    FAQ Section

    What is the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder indicator?

    This on-chain metric tracks the supply of Bitcoin held by addresses that have acquired their coins within the last 155 days, helping identify potential market tops and bottoms.

    Why is the $94,500 level significant?

    This price represents the average acquisition cost for short-term holders, acting as a psychological support level below which these investors would face unrealized losses.

    What could trigger a market correction?

    A combination of factors including sustained STH distribution, macro economic events, and post-halving cycle dynamics could contribute to a potential correction after October 2025.

  • Bitcoin Price Rally Shows Weakness as Spot Volume Plunges 35%

    Bitcoin Price Rally Shows Weakness as Spot Volume Plunges 35%

    Bitcoin’s recent surge to new all-time highs above $110,000 may be showing signs of fragility, according to concerning market data that reveals a significant decline in spot trading volume. This analysis comes as BTC continues testing historical highs amid lagging altcoin performance.

    Key Market Indicators Flash Warning Signs

    On-chain analyst Darkfost has identified a potentially troubling trend in Bitcoin’s market structure. According to data from Binance, while futures trading activity has seen modest gains since May 5, spot market volume has experienced a notable decline. This divergence between futures and spot markets often precedes increased volatility.

    SPONSORED

    Trade Bitcoin with up to 100x leverage on perpetual contracts

    Trade Now on Defx

    Understanding the Volume Metrics

    Two critical metrics are at play:

    • Daily Binance Future Trade Volume: Shows increasing short-term speculative activity
    • Spot Trading Volume: Indicates declining long-term investor participation

    This imbalance suggests that current price action is being driven more by leveraged speculation than genuine spot demand, creating potential instability in the market. As some analysts project ambitious price targets, this underlying weakness demands attention.

    Market Impact and Risk Assessment

    The current market dynamics present several key risks:

    • Increased volatility potential due to leveraged positions
    • Reduced support from spot buyers during pullbacks
    • Higher likelihood of sharp price corrections

    Current Price Action and Outlook

    Bitcoin currently trades at $107,770, showing modest 24-hour gains of 0.2%. While the weekly performance remains positive at 4%, the declining spot volume suggests caution is warranted for both short and medium-term positions.

    FAQ

    Q: Why is spot volume important for Bitcoin’s price stability?
    A: Spot volume represents real demand from long-term investors, providing stronger price support than leveraged futures trading.

    Q: What could trigger a market correction?
    A: A lack of spot buying support combined with overleveraged futures positions could lead to cascading liquidations if price support levels break.

    Q: How can traders protect themselves in this environment?
    A: Consider reducing leverage, maintaining strict stop losses, and watching for signs of spot volume recovery before taking large positions.

  • Bitcoin Liquidity at $105K: Key Level Could Trigger New ATH Push

    Bitcoin Liquidity at $105K: Key Level Could Trigger New ATH Push

    Bitcoin’s recent surge to $112,000 has revealed a critical liquidity cluster at the $105,700 level, potentially setting the stage for the next major move in the world’s leading cryptocurrency. Recent ETF inflow data showing a 350% surge to $2.75B adds significant weight to the bullish outlook.

    According to Coinglass data, a dense concentration of orders around $105,700 could act as a short-term price magnet. This technical setup, combined with Bitcoin maintaining support above $100,000, suggests bulls remain firmly in control of the market structure.

    SPONSORED

    Trade Bitcoin with up to 100x leverage and maximize your profit potential

    Trade Now on Defx

    Technical Analysis Points to Further Upside

    The 4-hour chart shows Bitcoin consolidating above key moving averages, with the 34 EMA ($108,046), 50 SMA ($106,840), and 100 SMA ($105,109) providing dynamic support. On-chain metrics confirm whale accumulation continues despite the recent all-time high.

    Key Support and Resistance Levels

    • Major Support: $103,600 (Previous resistance turned support)
    • Critical Liquidity Zone: $105,700
    • Current Resistance: $112,000 (Recent ATH)
    • Next Target: $115,000-$120,000 range

    Market Sentiment Remains Grounded

    Despite reaching new all-time highs, market sentiment has yet to turn euphoric, suggesting room for further upside. The cautiously bullish tone, coupled with strong institutional interest through ETF inflows, provides a solid foundation for sustained price appreciation.

    FAQ

    What makes the $105,700 level significant?

    This price point represents a major liquidity cluster according to derivatives market data, making it a likely target for price action before the next significant move.

    Could Bitcoin reach $120,000 in the near term?

    Technical indicators and market structure suggest continued upside potential, with $120,000 representing a realistic target if current support levels hold.

    What role are ETFs playing in the current rally?

    ETF inflows have provided sustained buying pressure and institutional validation, contributing significantly to Bitcoin’s price stability above $100,000.

    Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

  • Bitcoin Price Drops Below $108K – Moving Averages Signal Bear Market Return

    Bitcoin Price Drops Below $108K – Moving Averages Signal Bear Market Return

    Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of weakness as it trades below critical moving averages, potentially signaling a return to bearish market conditions. According to technical analysis from Shaco AI, BTC is currently trading at $107,750, struggling to maintain momentum above key technical levels.

    Critical Moving Average Analysis Shows Bearish Pressure

    The leading cryptocurrency has fallen below both the 25-hour simple moving average (SMA) at $109,245 and the 50-hour SMA at $110,192, suggesting mounting selling pressure. This technical setup aligns with recent analysis showing Bitcoin’s rejection at the $112K all-time high, indicating bears may be regaining control.

    SPONSORED

    Trade Bitcoin with up to 100x leverage on perpetual contracts

    Trade Now on Defx

    Technical Indicators Paint Cautious Picture

    Key technical indicators are flashing warning signs:

    • RSI at 36.53 – approaching oversold territory
    • MACD at -755.12 – confirming strong bearish momentum
    • ADX at 37.85 – indicating a strong directional trend
    • Trading volume down to $383.4B from $1.425.44T average

    Critical Support and Resistance Levels

    Traders should watch these key price levels:

    • Resistance: $111,980
    • Current Price: $107,750
    • Support: $106,800

    Expert Analysis and Market Outlook

    The significant drop in trading volume, currently at just $383.4 billion compared to the recent average of $1.425.44 trillion, suggests market participants are taking a cautious approach. This aligns with recent data showing changing institutional investment patterns in Bitcoin ETFs.

    FAQ Section

    Is Bitcoin entering a bear market?

    While current indicators show bearish pressure, it’s too early to confirm a full bear market. The price remains above key support levels and institutional interest remains strong.

    What are the key levels to watch?

    The immediate support level at $106,800 is crucial. A break below could trigger further selling, while resistance at $111,980 needs to be cleared for bullish continuation.

    How significant is the current volume decrease?

    The 73% drop in trading volume is significant and could indicate a lack of conviction in the market direction, potentially preceding a major move.

  • Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Hits Unusual 2.4 at $111K ATH – Bullish Signal?

    Bitcoin’s recent surge above $111,000 has revealed an intriguing market development – an unusually low Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio that could signal stronger long-term market fundamentals. This milestone comes as institutional players continue to dominate the market, suggesting a more mature phase of Bitcoin’s evolution.

    Understanding the MVRV Anomaly

    Crypto analyst BilalHuseynov has identified a significant deviation from historical patterns in Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio. While previous all-time highs in 2013, 2017, and 2021 saw MVRV values between 3.5-4.0, the current cycle has peaked at just 2.4 despite reaching $111,970.

    SPONSORED

    Trade Bitcoin with up to 100x leverage and maximize your profit potential

    Trade Now on Defx

    Why This MVRV Reading Matters

    The lower MVRV ratio indicates several key market dynamics:

    • Higher cost basis due to increased institutional accumulation
    • More stable market conditions with reduced speculation
    • Stronger hands holding Bitcoin at higher prices
    • Reduced risk of major selloffs

    Market Implications and Price Analysis

    Despite a minor 2.50% retracement to $108,397, Bitcoin maintains strong momentum with a 17.65% monthly gain. The surge in ETF inflows reaching $2.75B further supports the thesis of increased institutional participation.

    Expert Analysis and Future Outlook

    According to BilalHuseynov’s analysis, this unique MVRV pattern suggests:

    • More sustainable price growth
    • Reduced market volatility
    • Higher probability of continued uptrend
    • Stronger market fundamentals

    FAQ Section

    What does a low MVRV ratio mean for Bitcoin?

    A lower MVRV ratio typically indicates a more stable market with less speculative behavior and stronger holding patterns among investors.

    Is Bitcoin overvalued at current prices?

    The MVRV ratio of 2.4 suggests Bitcoin is not overvalued compared to previous bull cycles, indicating potential room for further growth.

    What’s driving Bitcoin’s current price action?

    A combination of institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and stronger market fundamentals are supporting Bitcoin’s price levels.

  • Bitcoin Price Eyes $113K Local Top: Analyst Maps Altseason Trigger

    Bitcoin Price Eyes $113K Local Top: Analyst Maps Altseason Trigger

    Bitcoin’s meteoric rise continues to captivate the crypto market, with the flagship cryptocurrency recently achieving a new all-time high of $111,807. However, as Bitcoin tests critical support levels following its ATH rejection, analysts are closely monitoring key indicators that could signal a temporary top.

    Bitcoin Price Analysis: Key Resistance Levels

    Crypto analyst Joao Wedson has identified a potential local top for Bitcoin between $113,000 and $114,000, backed by compelling technical evidence. The analysis centers on two critical factors that suggest BTC’s bullish momentum might experience a short-term cooldown:

    • A long-term trendline resistance dating back to early 2021
    • Historical price action around the $110,000 liquidation level

    SPONSORED

    Trade Bitcoin with up to 100x leverage on perpetual contracts

    Trade Now on Defx

    Technical Indicators Signal Caution

    The emergence of a significant trendline resistance level has historically preceded major market corrections. Recent analysis of Bitcoin’s price temperature reaching 2.67 further supports the possibility of a temporary pullback.

    Altseason Potential: Market Rotation Ahead?

    Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of Wedson’s analysis is the potential for an altcoin season following Bitcoin’s local top. While Bitcoin’s dominance has recently strengthened, historical patterns suggest that capital often rotates into alternative cryptocurrencies after BTC peaks.

    Current Market Status

    As of the latest data, Bitcoin is trading at $108,500, representing a 2.3% decline over 24 hours. This correction appears linked to broader market concerns, including geopolitical tensions surrounding potential EU tariffs.

    FAQ Section

    What is the predicted Bitcoin local top?

    Analysts project a potential local top between $113,000 and $114,000 based on technical indicators and historical price action.

    When might the altseason begin?

    Historical patterns suggest altseason could commence after Bitcoin reaches its local top, potentially in the coming months.

    What are the key support levels to watch?

    Current critical support levels exist at $109,000 and $108,500, with the latter serving as an immediate defensive line.

  • Dogecoin Price Eyes $3: MA50 Pattern Signals 2,600% Rally Ahead

    Dogecoin Price Eyes $3: MA50 Pattern Signals 2,600% Rally Ahead

    Dogecoin (DOGE) appears poised for a massive rally as technical analysis reveals a striking similarity to previous bull cycles that delivered returns exceeding 2,400%. Despite a recent 6.9% pullback, key indicators suggest the popular meme coin could surge to $3 by year-end 2025.

    This bullish outlook comes amid broader cryptocurrency market strength, as Bitcoin recently touched $111K while altcoins show lagging performance, potentially setting up DOGE for a catch-up rally.

    Monthly MA50 Pattern Signals Historic Opportunity

    Technical analysis from InvestingScope highlights a critical pattern forming on Dogecoin’s monthly chart. The cryptocurrency has bounced off its 50-month moving average (MA50) – a technical indicator that preceded explosive rallies in both 2017 and 2021.

    • 2017 Cycle: 2,824% gain ($0.0007 to $0.01827)
    • 2021 Cycle: 2,403% surge ($0.03 to $0.73)
    • 2025 Projection: 2,600% potential rally from $0.13 base

    SPONSORED

    Trade meme coins with up to 100x leverage and maximize your potential returns

    Trade Now on Defx

    Technical Indicators Support Bullish Outlook

    Multiple technical indicators align to support the bullish case:

    • RSI: 64.264 (showing strong momentum)
    • MACD: Positive at 0.014
    • ADX: Above 32 (indicating trend strength)
    • Support level: $0.22 (former resistance turned support)

    FAQ: Dogecoin’s $3 Price Target

    Why is the MA50 bounce significant?

    The MA50 bounce has historically preceded Dogecoin’s largest rallies, with previous instances leading to gains of over 2,400%.

    What could prevent DOGE from reaching $3?

    Key risks include broader market downturns, regulatory changes, or shifts in retail investor sentiment toward meme coins.

    How does this compare to previous DOGE cycles?

    The current setup mirrors the accumulation phases of 2017 and 2021, which both led to parabolic price increases.

    Current price action shows DOGE trading at $0.2279, with immediate support at $0.22. While short-term volatility may persist, the long-term technical setup suggests significant upside potential as the cycle pattern continues to develop.

  • FET Price Targets $9.33: Bull Flag Pattern Signals 1,050% Rally

    FET Price Targets $9.33: Bull Flag Pattern Signals 1,050% Rally

    Fetch.ai (FET) has emerged as a standout performer in the crypto market, surging over 13% in the past 48 hours amid growing institutional interest in AI-focused cryptocurrencies. The token’s impressive 36.20% monthly gain coincides with the broader crypto market’s bullish momentum, suggesting a potential breakthrough moment for FET.

    Technical Analysis: Bull Flag Formation Signals Major Upside

    Renowned crypto analyst PlanD has identified a compelling bull flag pattern in FET’s price action, suggesting an imminent breakout could trigger a massive rally. The pattern, formed over two years, consists of:

    • A flagpole showing 1,400% growth from $0.20 to $3.00 in 2024
    • A consolidation phase between 2024-2025, with prices retracing to $0.25
    • Current price at $0.84 with resistance at $1.71

    SPONSORED

    Trade FET with up to 100x leverage on perpetual contracts

    Trade Now on Defx

    Price Prediction and Market Sentiment

    The technical setup suggests a potential price target of $9.33, representing a 1,050% increase from current levels. This projection aligns with broader market sentiment indicators, as the Fear & Greed Index sits at 78 (Extreme Greed).

    Key Metrics Supporting the Bullish Case

    • Trading volume up 51.46% in 24 hours
    • Weekly gains of 11.75%
    • Strong institutional interest in AI-focused cryptocurrencies

    FAQ Section

    What is the current FET price target?

    Based on technical analysis, FET’s immediate price target is $9.33, contingent on breaking above the $1.71 resistance level.

    Is FET a good investment in 2025?

    While showing strong potential with its bull flag pattern, investors should note CoinCodex’s shorter-term bearish outlook predicting a possible correction to $0.60 within 30 days.

    What drives FET’s price growth?

    FET’s price is primarily driven by increased adoption of AI technology in blockchain, institutional interest, and overall crypto market sentiment.