Defx Insights

Tag: Trading Indicators

  • Dogecoin Supply in Loss Hits 50%: BTC, ETH Show Diverging Trends

    Dogecoin Supply in Loss Hits 50%: BTC, ETH Show Diverging Trends

    Recent on-chain data reveals a concerning trend for Dogecoin (DOGE) holders as nearly 50% of the total supply has fallen into unrealized loss. This development comes amid broader market turbulence that’s creating divergent patterns across major cryptocurrencies.

    Key Supply in Profit Metrics Reveal Market Stress

    According to fresh data from Glassnode, Dogecoin’s Supply in Profit metric has declined to just 50.8%, marking a dramatic 32.3% drop since January 2025. This significant shift suggests mounting pressure on DOGE holders, particularly as the asset tests critical support levels.

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    Major Cryptocurrencies Show Divergent Patterns

    The analysis reveals striking contrasts among top cryptocurrencies:

    • Bitcoin (BTC): Maintains relative strength with 76.8% supply in profit
    • Ethereum (ETH): Struggling at 44.9% supply in profit
    • Solana (SOL): Most affected with only 31.6% supply in profit
    • XRP: Leading the pack with over 80% supply in profit

    Market Implications and Future Outlook

    Historical data suggests that high Supply in Loss figures often precede market bottoms, as profit-taking pressure diminishes. This could position assets like Dogecoin, Ethereum, and Solana for potential recovery, though market conditions remain uncertain.

    FAQ Section

    What does Supply in Profit indicate?

    Supply in Profit measures the percentage of circulating tokens currently worth more than their last transaction price.

    Why is Dogecoin’s metric significant?

    The 50% threshold often represents a psychological turning point that can influence holder behavior and future price action.

    How does this compare to previous market cycles?

    Historical data shows that similar supply distributions have preceded significant price movements, though past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

    Current DOGE price stands at $0.154, showing an 11% increase in the last 24 hours, suggesting potential short-term recovery despite the concerning supply metrics.

  • Ethereum Price Faces Critical $2,000 Test as Bollinger Bands Signal Risk

    Ethereum (ETH) stands at a crucial technical crossroads as Q1 2025 draws to a close, with the second-largest cryptocurrency facing significant downside risk according to leading analysts. The current price action suggests ETH could break below a key technical indicator that has supported its price since mid-2022.

    Critical Technical Level Under Threat

    Renowned crypto analyst Tony “The Bull” Severino has identified a potentially bearish setup on Ethereum’s quarterly timeframe chart. The cryptocurrency is testing the lower boundary of its 3-month Bollinger Bands – a technical indicator that has reliably marked major trend shifts for ETH since July 2022.

    “There are seven days left to save Ethereum from closing below the 3M Bollinger Band basis. If it loses it, look out below,” Severino warned his followers on X (formerly Twitter). This technical development comes as broader crypto market sentiment shows signs of uncertainty.

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    Understanding the Technical Implications

    The 3-month Bollinger Bands indicator is particularly significant because it:

    • Provides a longer-term view of price action
    • Helps identify major trend reversals
    • Shows potential support and resistance levels
    • Signals periods of unusual price volatility

    Potential Price Scenarios

    If Ethereum closes below the lower Bollinger Band, analysts project several key support levels:

    • Primary support: $2,000 (psychological level)
    • Secondary support: $1,800 (previous resistance turned support)
    • Critical support: $1,500 (major accumulation zone)

    Long-term Perspective Required

    Severino emphasizes the importance of maintaining a longer-term perspective. “Think in terms of quarters, not months, weeks, or days,” he advised, suggesting that any meaningful recovery would require sustained buying pressure over multiple quarters.

    FAQ Section

    What are Bollinger Bands?

    Bollinger Bands are technical indicators that consist of a middle band (usually a 20-period moving average) and two outer bands that represent standard deviations of the price.

    Why is the $2,000 level significant for Ethereum?

    The $2,000 price point represents both a psychological barrier and a technical support level that has historically acted as a pivot point for ETH price action.

    What could trigger an Ethereum recovery?

    A recovery could be triggered by increased institutional adoption, network upgrades, or broader crypto market momentum. However, sustained buying pressure would be necessary for a true trend reversal.

    At press time, Ethereum trades at $2,052, with market participants closely monitoring the critical technical levels in the coming days.